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SEC Week 8 · The Tiger Bowl
5–2 (2–2 SEC)

(18) LSU

Tigers
AT
4–2 (2–2 SEC)

Auburn

Tigers
Saturday, Oct. 24Noon ETJordan-Hare Stadium · AuburnABCLSU −7.5Clear · 68°F · Wind 11 mph

The call

LSU owns the SEC's best defense and its most explosive offense. Auburn owns a quarterback who just beat No. 1 Georgia with his legs and a stadium that has been haunted all season. The talent gap is wider than the atmosphere gap, but not as wide as the spread — even with Auburn's front seven thinned by the Monday-night dismissal of All-American linebacker Xavier Atkins.

Projected final
28—21

LSU by seven

Sam Leavitt throws efficiently against the 96th-ranked pass defense, now minus dismissed linebacker Xavier Atkins (37 tackles, 7.5 TFL). Both pass rushes are shorthanded — Atkins for Auburn, and possibly Princewill Umanmielen (8 sacks, day-to-day) for LSU — but LSU's 26 sacks still meet an Auburn line that has allowed 23. Auburn stays inside the number behind Byrum Brown's legs and Jordan-Hare noise.

Why it lands there

  1. 01Win the third-down trench war. LSU's rush (26 sacks, No. 2 in the SEC) meets the nation's 134th-ranked pass protection (23 sacks allowed). Auburn's offensive line shuffled starters last week — though LSU's own rush is missing 8 sacks of its own if Umanmielen can't clear protocol.
  2. 02Force Brown to beat them through the air. Brown has thrown 7 interceptions; LSU's defense is No. 4 in the SEC with 7 picks and has allowed only 4 passing touchdowns all season.
  3. 03The injury margin now favors LSU. Auburn dismissed All-American LB Xavier Atkins on Monday night (37 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks) — a permanent loss from its front seven. LSU is still without Weeks, Spears and Trey'Dez Green, but Jackson Harris (456 yards, 5 TD) said Tuesday he is good to go at Auburn, while Umanmielen (believed concussion) remains day-to-day.
  4. 04Expect a road fight. LSU is 0–2 on the road this season and carries an eight-game SEC road losing streak into the most chaotic venue in the league.
71.3%FPI: LSU
27–24SportsJaw model
28–20Auburn Wire
20–15Advertiser
Sources: FPI, SportsJaw, Auburn Wire, Advertiser

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

LSU QB vs Auburn pass D

LSU · strong
Sam Leavitt
Comp.70.1%
Yards / att.~8.3
TD–INT14–8
Auburn coverage
Pass yds allowed228.0/g
National rank96th
Yds / play allowed5.1

Read: Leavitt is coming off 31-of-38 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns against Mississippi State — his first turnover-free game of the season. Auburn's pass defense ranks 96th nationally and faces LSU's 8th-ranked passing attack (311.0 ypg). Jackson Harris's ankle was the one cloud over the matchup, but he said Tuesday he is good to go and could have returned against Mississippi State had the game been closer.

SI · Louisiana Sports · TigerDroppings

Auburn QB vs LSU pass D

LSU · moderate
Byrum Brown
Pass yds (est.)~1,205
Rush yds~459
INT thrown7
LSU coverage
Pass yds allowed168.3/g
INT7 (4th SEC)
Pass TD allowed4

Read: Brown hasn't thrown for 160 yards in any of his last three games, but he ran for 115 on 26 carries at Georgia. LSU's pass defense is 5th in the SEC and has picked off 7 passes; the game plan will be to make Brown win from the pocket, where his 7 interceptions (second-worst in the SEC) live.

Louisiana Sports · LSU Football Report · DawgNation

LSU RBs vs Auburn front

LSU · moderate
LSU rushing
Yards / game213.7
Yards / carry~4.9
Jones482 yds · 5 TD
Auburn front
Allowed / game143.0
Allowed / carry3.6
Rush TD allowed9

Read: Dilin Jones (482 yards, 5 TD) leads a top-26 rushing attack, and Harlem Berry adds burst (7.3 ypc in a limited role). Auburn's run defense is average (74th) and just held Georgia to 113 rushing yards — but that was before All-American linebacker Xavier Atkins (37 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks) was dismissed from the program Monday night (ESPN's Pete Thamel). Elijah Melendez (team-high 52 tackles, 9 TFL, 4 sacks) becomes the full-time engine of the front seven against LSU's ground game.

ClutchPoints · TigerRag · Louisiana Sports

Auburn RBs vs LSU front

LSU · strong
Auburn rushing
Yards / game182.0
Yards / carry4.7
Brown~107 carries
LSU front
Allowed / game88.1
SEC rank1st
TFL50

Read: The biggest statistical mismatch on the page: Auburn's ground game runs through its quarterback — Brown's 107 carries are nearly double Jeremiah Cobb's 58 — against the SEC's best run defense. LSU gave up 170 rushing yards to Mississippi State's backup-quarterback offense last week, so the seal isn't airtight. Princewill Umanmielen's health (8 sacks, left Saturday's game) looms large over contain on Brown.

LSU Football Report · Louisiana Sports · LSU Tigers Wire

LSU WR/TE vs Auburn DBs

LSU · moderate
Primary targets
Watkins Jr.29 · 416 · 2
Harris27 · 456 · 5
Wilson III3 · 32 · 1*
Auburn DBs
Melendez (LB)INT vs UGA
Team228.0 yds/g allowed
Missed tackles vs UGAseason-low 7

Read: Jackson Harris (456 yards, 5 TD, 6 catches for 85 yards and 2 TDs vs Mississippi State) now leads LSU's receivers. He left Saturday with an ankle injury, but told reporters Tuesday he is good to go for Auburn and could have returned against Mississippi State. Umanmielen remains day-to-day, with the first SEC availability report due Wednesday night. Auburn's secondary held up at Georgia — just 7 missed tackles per PFF, its season low. If Harris can't go, LSU leans harder on Winston Watkins Jr., Eugene Wilson III and Malik Elzy. (*Wilson line: vs Mississippi State only.)

ClutchPoints · Sportradar box · TigerRag

Auburn WR/TE vs LSU DBs

LSU · strong
Primary targets
NimrodWR1 on depth chart
SingletonWR2 on depth chart
Passing ypa6.6 (113th)
LSU DBs
Pass D168.3 yds/g (5th SEC)
INT7
BenefieldINT vs MSU

Read: Auburn ranks 113th nationally in yards per pass attempt (6.6) and its passing game hasn't produced in three weeks. LSU's secondary allows 168.3 passing yards per game with only 4 passing touchdowns surrendered all season. This is Auburn's clearest disadvantage on the field.

Louisiana Sports · LSU Football Report · Auburn Wire

LSU OL vs Auburn DL

LSU · slight
LSU protection
Sacks allowed / g~1.7
TFL allowed / g~6.0
LTJordan Seaton
Auburn pressure
Vs Georgiaseason-low misses
Atkinsdismissed Monday
Melendez4 sacks (team lead)

Read: LSU's protection is solid but not elite (about 1.7 sacks allowed per game, anchored by transfer Jordan Seaton). Auburn's pressure was concentrated in its linebackers — and the Atkins half is gone: dismissed Monday night, so the load falls entirely on Elijah Melendez (4 sacks, sack + INT vs Georgia), with former LSU edge Da'Shawn Womack in the rotation. Thinner rotation, same scheme.

Punt & Rally · TigerRag · SI

Auburn OL vs LSU DL

LSU · strong
Auburn protection
Sacks allowed23 (134th)
TFL allowed39 (105th)
LT / LGStrand / Zierer
LSU pressure
Team sacks26 (2nd SEC)
Umanmielen8.0 sacks
Team TFL50

Read: The game's clearest trench mismatch. Auburn's line just shuffled starters (Jacob Strand at left tackle, Wilson Zierer at left guard) and ranks 134th nationally in sacks allowed. LSU has 26 sacks — but 8 of them belong to Princewill Umanmielen, who left Saturday's game in street clothes. His status is the most important injury question on either roster.

Louisiana Sports · LSU Football Report · Auburn Wire

Possession pressure

Leavitt has thrown 8 interceptions (all of LSU's confirmed INT giveaways); Brown has thrown 7. Both defenses intercept well. Neither team's full-season fumble-recovery total was published, so no exact margin is presented.

Leavitt INT thrown8

0 vs Mississippi State

LSU INT forced7

4th in the SEC

Brown INT thrown7

2nd-most in SEC

Auburn TOs forced vs UGA3

2 INT · 1 fumble

What remains open: LSU's full-season fumbles-lost total and Auburn's full-season takeaway total were not published in the sources reviewed, so turnover margin cannot be stated exactly. What is confirmed: Brown is responsible for all three of Auburn's turnovers in the Tennessee loss, and LSU has forced at least one interception in six of seven games. Resolved against Auburn: All-American LB Xavier Atkins was dismissed from the program Monday night (removes 3 sacks and 7.5 TFL of pressure-strip ability; Elijah Melendez carries the load). Still unresolved: LSU DE Princewill Umanmielen's concussion status (affects LSU's strip-sack potential).
SI · LSU Football Report · DawgNation · Shreveport Advocate

Field goals & field position

Auburn has the stronger demonstrated leg: Alex McPherson has made a 55-yarder and the game-winner at No. 1 Georgia and is perfect on 94 career PATs. LSU's Scott Starzyk is 5-of-7 on field goals in the published splits. Full-season field-goal splits for both kickers were not available.

LSU · Scott Starzyk

5/7*71.4%
Long 49
20–294/5*
40–491/2*
Vs Mississippi State1/1
PAT18/18*
Chadwick punt avg.~40.2
*Through first four games; full-season split not published. LSU stats (g4) · MSU box

Auburn · Alex McPherson

Career94/94 PATs
Long 55
Vs Southern Miss55-yd FG
At GeorgiaGame-winner
Season FGunpublished*
Punt: Hudson Kaak—
*Season FG makes/attempts not published in sources reviewed. Gators Wire · Roll Tide Wire

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

26 vs 23

LSU sacks generated vs Auburn sacks allowed

The cleanest proxy for the pass-rush war: LSU's 26 sacks rank No. 2 in the SEC; Auburn's 23 sacks allowed rank 134th nationally. Auburn shuffled its left side last week. Caveats: Umanmielen's concussion status (LSU) and Atkins's dismissal (Auburn).

LSU Football Report · Louisiana Sports
  • No public on-target, adjusted-completion, or deep-ball splits were found for either quarterback. Leavitt's 70.1% completion and ~8.3 yards per attempt (post-Mississippi State, per SI) is the best available placement proxy.
  • Auburn's explosive-run proxy: Byrum Brown's 26 carries for 115 yards at Georgia, and team totals of 182.0 rushing ypg and 36 runs of 10+ yards; official explosive-run rate and yards-after-contact were not published.
  • LSU's rushing proxy: 213.7 team rushing yards per game (26th nationally), with Dilin Jones at 4.5 ypc and Harlem Berry at 7.3 ypc in a limited role.
  • Brown's passing-floor proxy: under 160 passing yards in each of the last three games and 6.6 yards per attempt (113th nationally) — the numbers LSU's coverage will try to enforce.
SI · Louisiana Sports · ClutchPoints

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 7 (played Oct. 17, 2026), compiled October 20, 2026; line and injury notes refreshed October 21, 2026. Kickoff is Noon ET Saturday, Oct. 24 at Jordan-Hare Stadium on ABC. Injury status reflects Tuesday's news — Xavier Atkins's dismissal from Auburn, Jackson Harris's own word that he is good to go, and Princewill Umanmielen still day-to-day — with the first official SEC availability report due Wednesday night; betting lines can change before kickoff.

  1. LSU Football Report: LSU stat-sheet rankingsLSU's SEC ranks: No. 1 total and rush defense, 2nd scoring defense, 26 sacks, 7 INT, 50 TFL.
  2. Louisiana Sports: Statistically Speaking, AuburnAuburn national ranks: 26.8 ppg (84th), 5.6 ypp (91st), 23 sacks allowed (134th), 96th pass defense.
  3. Official LSU statistics (through 5 games)Rushing, passing, kicking splits and Leavitt's early-season numbers.
  4. Sports Illustrated on Sam Leavitt70.1% completion, 14 TD, 8 INT after Mississippi State.
  5. 247Sports: ESPN FPI on LSU's remaining slateLSU's FPI win probability at Auburn: 71.3%.
  6. SportsJaw modelLSU 27–24 (updated Oct. 21); LSU −7.5, total 50.5; best-bet Pass.
  7. Auburn Wire (USA Today): odds and predictionBetMGM LSU −9, LSU 28–20; Auburn depth chart.
  8. The Advertiser: LSU vs Auburn odds, predictionLSU 20–15; LSU's road losses at Ole Miss and Kentucky.
  9. Picks and ParlaysAuburn +6, under 50.5; projects a 24–21-type game.
  10. Saturday Down South: opening lineLSU opened −7 (Circa), total 51; kickoff Noon ET on ABC.
  11. 247Sports: Week 8 TV gamesLSU at Auburn confirmed on ABC, 12:00 PM ET.
  12. LSU Tigers Wire: injuriesUmanmielen and Harris leave Mississippi State game; Weeks, Spears, Green out.
  13. TigerDroppings: Kiffin on Jackson HarrisAnkle injury; Kiffin "thinks he will be fine."
  14. 247Sports: Atkins (superseded)Missed Georgia game; 37 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks in five games. Its "status unresolved" reporting was superseded by Monday night's dismissal — see TigerRag/ClutchPoints/SI above. Auburn held Georgia to 113 rushing yards and a season-low 7 missed tackles without him.
  15. Shreveport Advocate: LSU's road problemEight-game SEC road losing streak; Brown's 115 yards vs Georgia.
  16. DawgNation: Byrum Brown1,055 passing yards, 344 rushing yards, 11 total TD, 7 INT entering Georgia.
  17. Punt & Rally: LSU profilePer-game pressures: 3.4 sacks, 1.7 sacks allowed, 7.0 TFL.
  18. On3: Week 8 top-10 gamesLSU at Auburn No. 3; ABC; LSU favored by 6.5 (Polymarket).
  19. TigerRag: Atkins dismissedDismissed Monday night Oct. 19 (ESPN's Pete Thamel); 37 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT; Atkins posted an X statement Oct. 20 saying he'll enter the transfer portal.
  20. ClutchPoints: Atkins dismissedAlso missed the start of the Southern Miss game (internal discipline); Melendez and Deas combined for 17 tackles vs Georgia.
  21. SI: Atkins dismissedMelendez (52 tackles, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, 5 pass deflections) becomes the full-time LB1; was on pace to surpass Atkins's 2025 numbers.
  22. SI: LSU injury questionsUmanmielen (believed head injury, possible concussion protocol) and Harris (ankle) both day-to-day; Kiffin: "We're not going to force either one." Dylan Carpenter (0.5 sack vs MSU) fills in at edge.
  23. TigerRag: Harris "will be fine"Harris leads LSU: 456 yards on 27 catches, 5 TD, 16.9 ypc; Kiffin: "I think he'll be fine." No medical update on Umanmielen (8 sacks). Weeks, Spears, Green out.
  24. SI: Everything to knowLSU: 40.4 ppg, 504 ypg; allows 15.9 ppg, 256.4 ypg. Auburn: 26.8 ppg, 394.2 ypg; allows 21.8 ppg, 371 ypg. Auburn received 61 AP votes, not ranked.
  25. TigerDroppings: line movementOpened LSU −7 (Circa), moved to LSU −8.5; first meeting between the schools since 2023.
  26. LSU Tigers Wire: Harris injury update (Oct. 21)Harris said after Tuesday's practice he is good to go at Auburn and could have returned against Mississippi State had the game been closer.
  27. SI: LSU at Auburn odds (DraftKings)LSU −7.5, total 50.5 as of Oct. 21 — the line has settled a point toward Auburn from the −8.5 posted earlier in the week (BetMGM also −7.5 per azcentral, which also carries The Sporting News projection of LSU 27–17).