Coach Snark
Your Source For Tennessee Volunteers Football
SEC Weekly Previews and Results  ·  Coach Memes
SEC Week 8 · ABC Saturday Night Football
5–1 (3–1 SEC)

(7) Ole Miss

Rebels
AT
4–2 (1–2 SEC)

(19) Texas

Longhorns
Saturday, Oct. 247:30 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · AustinABCTexas −3.5Partly cloudy · 83°F · Wind 10 mph

The call

The models strengthened for Texas on Wednesday — SportsLine projects 29–17 and SP+ makes it −6.5 — and SI’s buy-low pick leans Texas at home. But the newest staff picks (ESPN’s McElroy, Bleacher Report, and a flipped SportsJaw) all take Ole Miss by three, and the week’s news points the other way: the Longhorns’ offense is in freefall, the nation’s sack leader won’t play, and the backup quarterback is taking first-team reps. Ole Miss has the clearly better quarterback, the SEC’s best pass protection, and the hotter defense.

Projected final
30—27

Ole Miss by three

Chambliss outplays Manning by a wide margin, and Texas’s pass rush loses its one elite gear with Colin Simmons sidelined. The Longhorns’ defense and a desperate home crowd keep it a one-score game into the fourth quarter.

Why it lands there

  1. 01The quarterback gap is the game’s largest edge. Chambliss: 67.6% completions, 152.8 passer rating, 14–4 TD–INT. Manning: 64%, a 59.2 QBR that ranks 61st nationally, and three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games.
  2. 02No Simmons, no shortcut. Texas loses the nation’s sack leader (10.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss) for 3–4 weeks; the rest of the Longhorn defense has 8.5 sacks combined. Chambliss should get the cleanest pocket he’s seen in weeks.
  3. 03Texas can’t stay on schedule. The Longhorns have allowed 17 sacks, went 2-for-10 on third down against Florida, and are averaging 22.7 points over their last three games — while Ole Miss’s front (Purchase, Perkins, Echoles) is trending up and the Rebels’ line allows the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game).
  4. 04The Rebels’ defense has turned. Twenty points allowed in the last two games, including holding No. 13 Missouri to three points and 39 rushing yards. Texas’s ground game (3.6 per carry, 101st nationally) can’t exploit Ole Miss’s one lingering weakness.
Texas −3.5Spread (opened −6.5, steady since Mon.)
53.5Total (consensus)
Texas by ~6SP+ −6.5 (66%); SportsLine 29–17
Split picksTexas: SI, Sporting News 31–28; Ole Miss: McElroy 27–24, B/R 26–23, SportsJaw 27–24
Sources: Legion Report odds, The Sports Wire models, SportsJaw (Ole Miss 27–24, flipped Wed.), SEC Scouts (Ole Miss 30–27), SI (Texas −3.5), Picks & Parlays (Ole Miss +6.5), Saturday Down South line report, SportsLine model (Texas 29–17), SP+ via CLEATZ (Texas −6.5), AZ Central roundup (Sporting News Texas 31–28; ESPN FPI Texas 71.1%), ESPN’s McElroy (Ole Miss 27–24), Bleacher Report (Ole Miss 26–23)

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Ole Miss QB vs Texas pass D

Ole Miss · moderate
Trinidad Chambliss
Comp.67.6%
Yards / att.8.0
TD–INT14–4
Rush yards / TD127 / 6
Passer rating152.8
Texas coverage
Pass yds allowed166.2/g (#12)
Team sacks19
SimmonsOUT (ankle)

Read: Texas’s pass defense is elite on paper but just lost the nation’s sack leader for 3–4 weeks. Chambliss has thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games, owns the far cleaner efficiency profile, and has been pressured on just 18% of his dropbacks — the lowest rate of any SEC quarterback (Horns247).

Sports-Reference · theScore (Simmons) · Locked On Ole Miss · Horns247 (pressure stat)

Texas QB vs Ole Miss pass D

Texas · slight
Arch Manning
Comp.64%
Yards1,295
TD–INT11–5
QBR59.2 (61st)
Ole Miss coverage
Pass yds allowed236.5/g (#102)
INT forced*~5
Team sacks*~11

Read: Ole Miss gives up passing yards, which makes this Manning’s best matchup of the month. The brake is Manning himself: three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games and 17 sacks taken on the season. Sarkisian confirmed him as the starter Monday — while giving increased first-team reps to redshirt freshman KJ Lacey (Pete Thamel via Saturday Down South). *Season totals estimated; see caveats.

NBC Sports · USA Today · Sports-Reference · On3: Sarkisian presser

Ole Miss RBs vs Texas front

Texas · slight
Ole Miss rushing
Yards / game153.8
Yards / carry4.9
Rush TD13
Vs Missouri257 yds
Texas front
Allowed / game106.3 (#28)
Allowed / carry2.8*
Simmons TFL16 — OUT

Read: Texas’s front is stout, but Simmons was its most disruptive run defender too. Lacy (122) and Frazier (101) both ran wild last week, and Ole Miss’s top two backs each average over 5 yards per carry — though Lacy stays on load management and is expected to play through nagging left-shoulder and lower-body injuries (Clarion Ledger, Oct. 21), with Frazier and JT Lindsey cycling in (Golding, Monday presser). *Early-season figure.

Burnt Orange Nation · Legion Report · Orangebloods

Texas RBs vs Ole Miss front

Ole Miss · slight
Texas rushing
Yards / game135.0 (#101)
Yards / carry3.6
Rush TD9
SmothersQuestionable
Ole Miss front
Allowed / game153.5 (#89)*
Vs Missouri39 yds allowed
Purchase sacks3.5

Read: The season numbers say Ole Miss can’t stop the run; the last two weeks say otherwise. Either way, Texas’s ground game (3.3 per carry vs Florida) is ill-equipped to test either version, especially if Smothers sits — he did not practice Monday and was seen in a protective sling (Horns247). *Trending sharply down.

Clarion Ledger · Ole Miss Hub · Hook’Em Headlines · Burnt Orange Nation (Smothers sling)

Ole Miss WR/TE vs Texas DBs

Texas · slight
Primary targets
Deuce Alexander106 yds/g
Caleb Cunningham3/61/1 vs Mizzou
Caleb Odom (TE)4/37/1 vs Mizzou
Texas DBs
Pass yds allowed166.2/g (#12)
Team4.0 yds/play def.
Pass rush nowSimmons-less

Read: Strength on strength: the 13th-ranked passing offense against the 12th-ranked pass defense. The lean goes to coverage, but without Simmons collapsing the pocket, Chambliss’s top four targets (all averaging 3+ catches a game) get time to work.

Burnt Orange Nation · Legion Report

Texas WR/TE vs Ole Miss DBs

Texas · slight
Primary targets
Cam Coleman5/110/1 vs OU
Ryan Wingo2/57/1 vs OU
Jermaine Bishop Jr.TD vs OU
Ole Miss DBs
Pass yds allowed236.5/g (#102)
Joseph (nickel)Doubtful (ankle)
Secondary statsNot published

Read: Ole Miss’s leakiest unit meets Texas’s most talented one — Coleman had 110 yards against Oklahoma. Whether Manning can deliver the ball on time is the only real question; Ole Miss may also be without starting nickel Edwin Joseph (tightrope procedure on a high ankle sprain, could miss Texas too, per Rebel Walk). *Estimated.

Sports-Reference · Rebel Walk (Joseph) · Red Cup Rebellion (Golding)

Ole Miss OL vs Texas DL

Texas · slight
Ole Miss protection
Sacks allowed0.83/g (SEC-best)
Team yards / play6.52
Red-zone scoring100% (24/24)
Texas pressure
Team sacks19
Simmons10.5 — OUT
Next upWatson, Umeozulu, Jackson

Read: This was Texas’s biggest trench edge before Monday. Without Simmons, 10.5 of the Longhorns’ 19 sacks disappear and unproven edge rushers must produce against a line allowing the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game, per Locked On Ole Miss) and fueling a 100% red-zone offense — 24 of 24, 21 touchdowns.

theScore · RotoBaller · Ole Miss Hub (sacks allowed)

Texas OL vs Ole Miss DL

Ole Miss · moderate
Texas protection
Sacks allowed17
Manning sacks17
Vs Florida5 sacks, 2/10 3rd
Ole Miss pressure
Team sacks*~11
Purchase3.5
Perkins (career)20.0

Read: The game’s clearest current mismatch. Texas’s line just gave up five sacks to Florida, and Ole Miss’s front — Purchase, Perkins, Echoles — can rush four and drop seven against a quarterback holding the ball too long.

NBC Sports · Locked On Ole Miss

Possession pressure

Neither team owns a clean turnover profile — both season margins are estimated from per-game averages and box scores, since neither school’s updated season PDF was available. The sharper signal: Manning has three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games.

Ole Miss margin*≈ −1

~7 takeaways, ~8 giveaways

Texas margin*≈ −3

5 takeaways, 8 giveaways

Manning late turnovers3

Fourth-quarter, last 2 games

Ole Miss pts off TO24–14

SEC games, thru Oct. 11

What remains open: exact season giveaway/takeaway totals are estimates (marked with *). Confirmed components: Manning 5 INT thrown and 3 fumbles lost for Texas; Chambliss 4 INT thrown for Ole Miss; Ole Miss forced 4 turnovers vs Vanderbilt and 1 vs Missouri; Texas forced none in its last two games.
Sports-Reference Ole Miss · Texas official stats (thru Sep. 28) · Ole Miss official SEC stats (thru Oct. 11) · USA Today (Manning)

Field goals & field position

Both kickers are reliable inside 50 — Ole Miss’s Carneiro owns the longer verified leg (57), while Texas’s Spetic is 9-of-10 on the season. Texas owns the return-game weapon in Ryan Niblett.

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

67.6 / 152.8

Chambliss completion % and passer rating, against Manning’s 64% and 59.2 QBR

The efficiency gap is the game’s widest. Chambliss has also thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games (one shy of Matt Corral’s school mark).

Sports-Reference · NBC Sports
  • No public adjusted completion %, on-target rate, or deep-ball splits were found for either quarterback. Completion %, yards per attempt (8.0 Chambliss), passer rating/QBR, and TD–INT ratio are used as proxies.
  • Chambliss placement proxy: ESPN’s draft analysis highlights his “accuracy on the move,” and he ranks third among 2027 NFL QB prospects; an NFC assistant GM: “he throws strike after strike.”
  • Ole Miss explosive-run proxy: 4.9 team yards per carry; Lacy (122) and Frazier (career-high 101) combined for 223 yards vs Missouri. Official explosive-run rate and yards-after-contact were not published.
  • Texas rushing proxy: 3.6 team yards per carry (101st nationally); Raleek Brown’s 32-yard touchdown vs Florida was the recent long. Smothers (questionable) led the backs with 237 yards through five games.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed and generated; public line-yards and TFL-allowed splits were unavailable. Ole Miss’s sacks-allowed figure (0.83 a game, SEC-best) comes from Locked On Ole Miss; official full-season splits were still not published.
Yardbarker / ESPN on Chambliss · Burnt Orange Nation

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 7, compiled October 20, 2026; delta-updated October 21, 2026. Kickoff verified: Saturday, Oct. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Injury status, the starting quarterback picture, and betting lines can change before kickoff.

  1. ABC 2026 college football scheduleOct. 24: Ole Miss @ Texas, 7:30 ET.
  3. Sports-Reference: 2026 Ole Miss statsTeam and Chambliss season totals through 6 games.
  4. Legion Report: odds + team comparisonSpread, total, per-game team stats and ranks.
  5. Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss defense vs Missouri39 rushing yards allowed; season defensive context.
  6. Clarion Ledger: polls after Week 7Ole Miss No. 7; Texas No. 18.
  7. Locked On Ole Miss newsletter (Oct. 19)No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas; FanDuel line Texas −3.5.
  8. NBC Sports: Manning remains starterSeason line: 1,295 yds, 64%, 11–5, 59.2 QBR, 17 sacks.
  9. USA Today: Manning vs Florida14/20, 173 yds, 1 TD; late strip-sack fumble.
  10. NY Post: Texas falls to FloridaSecond straight 27–24 loss; Simmons carted off.
  11. theScore: Simmons out vs Ole MissHigh ankle sprain; 10.5 sacks, 16 TFL lead nation.
  12. Orangebloods: Simmons/Smothers updatesSimmons 3–4 weeks; Smothers questionable.
  13. Texas Athletics: Florida recapSpetic 9/10 FG; Niblett punt-return TD; Simmons 5th sack in 5 games.
  14. The Sports Wire: Ole Miss model pageSP+ Ole Miss +15.9 (#16), Texas +24.4 (#6); call: Texas by 5.2.
  15. SportsJaw predictionTexas 28, Ole Miss 24; low confidence.
  16. SEC Scouts previewOle Miss 30, Texas 27.
  17. Saturday Down South: opening lineTexas −3.5 (Circa), total 52.5.
  18. Burnt Orange Nation: odds previewOle Miss 37.5 PPG, 6.52 YPP; Texas opened −3.5.
  19. GamblingSite: line movementLine moved from Texas −6.5 to −3.5 after Week 7.
  20. Texas official stats (thru Sep. 28)Early-season team, sack, red-zone and kicking splits.
  21. Ole Miss official SEC stats (thru Oct. 11)Conference-game splits; points off turnovers.
  22. Locked On Ole Miss: Blake PurchaseLeads Rebels in sacks (3.5) and TFL (6.5).
  23. SI: Ole Miss vs Texas predictionTexas −3.5 pick; Longhorns 9th in net adjusted EPA/play, 26th in net success rate; Chambliss 1,676 yds, 14–4, 127 rush yds, 6 rush TDs.
  24. Picks and Parlays: Ole Miss vs TexasOle Miss +6.5 and under 53.5; sees a ~27–23 game; spread drifted from 8.5 to 6.5 to 3.5.
  25. On3: Sarkisian Monday presserManning remains starter; Lacey takes first-team reps weekly; no Simmons/Smothers update until Wednesday report.
  26. Longhorn Wire: Manning speaks“I’m going to be better”; 433 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT, lost fumble in the two-game skid; 63% completions on season.
  27. Ole Miss Hub: sacks allowedOle Miss allows the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game, 10th nationally).
  28. Red Cup Rebellion: Golding presserManning “elite,” Sarkisian one of the best play callers; Lacy load management continues; expects Texas to establish the run.
  29. Rebel Walk: Joseph injury reportS Edwin Joseph: tightrope procedure on high ankle sprain, out vs Missouri; could also miss the Texas game.
  30. Horns247: Simmons reportSimmons likely out; no SEC QB pressured less often than Chambliss (18% of dropbacks).
  31. SportsLine: Week 8 model score predictions (Oct. 20–21)Texas 29, Ole Miss 17; Texas covers in 70% of simulations, Under 63%.
  32. CLEATZ: SP+ projections (retrieved Oct. 21)SP+ Texas −6.5, 66% win probability; market Texas −3.5.
  33. AZ Central: Ole Miss vs Texas picks roundupSporting News: Texas 31–28; ESPN FPI: Texas 71.1%; Dimers: Texas 28–25; BetMGM Texas −3, total 53.5.
  34. SI: ESPN’s McElroy pickMcElroy takes Ole Miss 27–24, citing Rebels pass protection and red-zone offense.
  36. Burnt Orange Nation: Simmons/Smothers injuriesSimmons 3–4 weeks, no structural damage; Smothers did not practice Monday, in a protective sling (Horns247).
  37. Clarion Ledger: Lacy vs Texas (Oct. 21)Lacy expected to play through nagging left-shoulder and lower-body injuries; 5.7 yards per carry.
  38. Rebel Walk: Ole Miss depth chart vs TexasJoseph still listed as starting nickel; McStravick now first on kickoffs with Carneiro managing a foot issue, Carneiro remains placekicker.
  39. VegasInsider: Ole Miss vs Texas odds (Oct. 21)Consensus Texas −3.5, total 53.5; pick Texas −3.

Caveats: the SEC’s official initial availability report for Week 8 had not yet been released as of Wednesday morning, Oct. 21 (due Wednesday evening); injury designations above are beat-writer reports (Pete Thamel/ESPN via theScore; Anwar Richardson/Orangebloods; Horns247) and coaches’ presser comments, not official. Wednesday consensus update: SportsLine (Texas 29–17), SP+ (Texas −6.5), ESPN FPI (Texas 71.1%) and Sporting News (Texas 31–28) lean Texas; ESPN’s McElroy (Ole Miss 27–24), Bleacher Report (26–23), SportsJaw (flipped to Ole Miss 27–24) and Last Word on Sports lean Ole Miss. Staff picks from CBS Sports, The Athletic, Fox Sports, Action Network, Covers, Pickswise, and TheLines were still not published as of Oct. 21. FEI, TeamRankings, and Sagarin projections for this specific game were not publicly available. Ole Miss’s updated season PDF (post-Missouri) and Texas’s updated season PDF (post-Florida) were not yet released; some season totals are estimates clearly marked with *. No public adjusted completion %, on-target rate, or deep-ball accuracy data exists for either quarterback.