Auburn at Ole Miss Preview

The call

Both teams lost in Week 8, but in opposite ways: Ole Miss rallied from 24–3 down at Texas before falling 34–27, while Auburn was outgained 552–271 in a 38–17 home loss to LSU. The Rebels own the quarterback, the protection and the building. Auburn owns the chaos résumé — it won at No. 1 Georgia two weeks ago.

Projected final

23—34

Ole Miss by 11

Trinidad Chambliss (275.1 passing yards a game) faces an Auburn pass defense that just gave up 387 yards to Sam Leavitt and now allows 250.7 a game, behind a line that has surrendered five sacks all season. Auburn's path — Byrum Brown's legs and a short field — is real, but it runs into an unbeaten-at-home team with its playoff margin for error gone. Confidence: medium — Kewan Lacy's shoulder is unresolved.

Why it lands there

01The quarterback gap. Chambliss: 1,926 yards, 16 TD, 275.1 yards a game. Brown: 1,362 yards, 8 TD, 6.5 yards an attempt — and under 165 passing yards in three straight games.
02Protection vs. pressure, flipped. Ole Miss has allowed 5 sacks in 7 games (none at Texas) and Auburn's pass rush produced one sack against LSU after All-American LB Xavier Atkins was dismissed. Auburn's line has allowed 30 sacks, seven of them last week.
03Lacy is the swing. RB Kewan Lacy (388 yards, 5 TD) aggravated his left shoulder at Texas, did not return, and Pete Golding had no update Sunday. Makhi Frazier (6 carries, 47 yards, a 34-yard run at Texas) softens the loss, but the Rebels' ceiling drops without Lacy.
04Home form vs. road chaos. Ole Miss is unbeaten at Vaught-Hemingway this season; Auburn is 1–1 on the road — a 24–14 loss at Tennessee and the 27–24 stunner at Georgia that keeps this from a higher-confidence call.

71.8%FPI: Ole Miss

+17.1 / +8.9SP+: Ole Miss / Auburn

31–23SEC Scouts: Ole Miss

−11.5 · 57.5Market spread / total

Sources: Market odds, SP+ (Sports Wire), FPI (Auburn Wire), SEC Scouts, Lacy update

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight. Season figures are through Week 8 (Oct. 24), updated with the Week 8 box scores.

Ole Miss QB vs Auburn pass D

Ole Miss · moderate

Trinidad Chambliss

Comp.63.7%

Pass yds / game275.1

TD–INT16–7

Rush TD6

Auburn coverage

Pass yds allowed250.7/g

Vs LSU (Wk 8)387 yds · 3 TD

INT vs Georgia2

Read: Chambliss's season line (167-of-262, 1,926 yards) is rebuilt from his 1,676 yards and 14 TD through six games plus a 25-of-52, 250-yard, 2-TD day at Texas — a career-high 3 interceptions there is the caution flag, not the trend. Auburn's pass defense slid from 228.0 yards a game (96th nationally) to 250.7 after Leavitt's career day, and it must do it without dismissed LB Xavier Atkins underneath.

Chambliss through Week 7 · Texas box score · LSU–Auburn box score

Auburn QB vs Ole Miss pass D

Ole Miss · slight

Byrum Brown

Comp.63.9%

Yards / att.6.5

TD–INT8–7

Rush yds / TD480 / 6

Ole Miss coverage

Pass yds allowed233.0/g

Crawford at Texas2 INT

Joseph (S)OUT

Read: Brown (133-of-208, 1,362 yards after a 15-of-24, 160-yard day vs LSU) wins games with his legs, not his arm — 6.5 yards an attempt ranked 113th nationally entering Week 8. Ole Miss gives up yards (233.0 a game) but just intercepted Arch Manning twice through Jalyn Crawford, and its season-long leak is partly offset by a secondary that, even without starting nickel Edwin Joseph (out, ankle), faces the SEC's most interception-prone starter this side of his 7 picks.

Brown through Week 7 · LSU box score · Joseph out

Ole Miss RBs vs Auburn front

Auburn · slight*

Ole Miss rushing

Yards / game148.0

Lacy388 yds · 5 TD

Frazier at Texas6 att · 47 yds

Auburn front

Allowed / game146.1

Allowed / carry*3.6

Melendez57 tkl · 4 sacks

Read: *This edge flips to Ole Miss if Lacy plays at full strength. Lacy aggravated the left shoulder he has nursed all season at Texas, did not return, and Golding offered no update Sunday — with no bye weeks left, his Week 9 status is the game's largest unknown. Auburn's front just allowed 165 rushing yards to LSU (Dilin Jones 92) and is led by Elijah Melendez, now the full-time engine with Atkins dismissed. Frazier's efficiency (7.8 a carry at Texas, long of 34) is the Rebels' insurance.

Lacy shoulder · 247Sports Texas notes

Auburn RBs vs Ole Miss front

Auburn · slight

Auburn rushing

Yards / game165.6

Brown (QB)480 yds · 6 TD

Cobb320 yds · 2 TD

Ole Miss front

Allowed / game~161

Vs Missouri39 yds allowed

Vs Texas207 yds allowed

Read: Two versions of this Ole Miss front exist: the one that held Missouri to 39 rushing yards and the one Texas gashed for 207 (Raleek Brown 157) a week later. Auburn's ground game is its offense — 165.6 yards a game even after a 67-yard, 1.9-a-carry collapse against LSU — and it runs through Brown, whose 115 yards at Georgia showed the ceiling and whose 21 yards on 19 carries last week showed the floor when the line loses.

Texas box score · LSU box score · Brown (Auburn official)

Ole Miss WR/TE vs Auburn DBs

Ole Miss · moderate

Primary targets

Alexander at Texas8 rec · 87 yds

Fields at Texas3 · 50 · 2 TD

Odom (TE) at Texas5 · 59

Auburn DBs

Harris vs LSU9 tackles

Team250.7 yds/g

Leavitt line faced32/45 · 387 · 3 TD

Read: Ole Miss spreads it to at least four credible targets — Deuce Alexander is the volume man, Horatio Fields scored twice in the Texas comeback, and tight end Caleb Odom is a chain-mover. Auburn's secondary just watched Jackson Harris post 9 catches for 178 yards and 2 TD; a four-wide Rebels rotation is a worse matchup than one star.

Texas box score · LSU box score

Auburn WR/TE vs Ole Miss DBs

Ole Miss · slight

Primary targets

Singleton36 rec · 431 yds · 2 TD

Nimrod33 rec · 340 yds · 3 TD

Neptune32 rec

Ole Miss DBs

Crawford2 INT at Texas

Kite at Texas7 tackles · 1 TFL

Joseph / Preston / BroomfieldOUT

Read: Keshaun Singleton (team-high 431 yards after 4-for-64 vs LSU) is Auburn's one proven separator, and Christian Neptune's 32 catches are mostly possession work. The Ole Miss secondary is thin — Joseph, MJ Preston and Pat Broomfield were all out at Texas — but Auburn's 6.5 yards an attempt has not punished thin secondaries all season.

Auburn targets · Texas box score · Rebel Walk availability

Ole Miss OL vs Auburn DL

Ole Miss · moderate

Ole Miss protection

Sacks allowed5 in 7 games

At Texas0 allowed

Red-zone scoring*100% thru Wk 7

Auburn pressure

Sacks vs LSU1

Melendez4.0 sacks

AtkinsDismissed

Read: The SEC's best protection meets a pass rush in transition. Ole Miss allowed no sacks at Texas even with starting LT Terez Davis dressed but not playing (Connor Howes went the whole game) and C Brycen Sanders gutting through a third-quarter injury before returning. Auburn's lone sack last week came from Jared Smith; without Atkins (3 sacks, 7.5 TFL), Melendez carries a rush that must win with four against a line giving up 0.71 sacks a game.

247Sports OL notes · LSU box score

Auburn OL vs Ole Miss DL

Ole Miss · moderate

Auburn protection

Sacks allowed30 in 7 games

Vs LSU7 allowed

LT / LGStrand / Zierer*

Ole Miss pressure

Sacks at Texas2

Franklin1 sack · 2 TFL · FR TD

Purchase1 sack · FF

Read: Auburn's reshuffled left side (Jacob Strand, Wilson Zierer) is the game's clearest trench liability: 30 sacks allowed, 134th-ranked protection entering Week 8, and seven more surrendered to LSU. Ole Miss's ends just produced the Texas comeback — Kam Franklin's fumble-recovery touchdown off Blake Purchase's strip-sack — and Brown's scrambling only partly offsets negative plays; LSU held him to 1.1 yards a carry. *Week 8 starting pair.

LSU box score · Texas box score

Possession pressure

Neither team's full-season fumble ledger was published in the sources reviewed, so no exact turnover margin is presented. The confirmed components point one way: Auburn's quarterback has thrown 7 interceptions, and Ole Miss's defense just took the ball away three times at Texas — while its own quarterback gave it back three times in the same game.

Brown INT thrown7

Most among SEC starters in the sources reviewed; 0 vs LSU

Chambliss INT thrown7

4 through Week 7, then a career-high 3 at Texas

Ole Miss takeaways at Texas3

2 INT (Crawford) · 1 fumble recovery TD

Auburn takeaways vs Georgia3

2 INT · 1 fumble — the upset formula

What remains open: Complete season giveaway/takeaway totals and exact margins for both teams were not published. What is confirmed: the LSU–Auburn game was turnover-free, the Texas–Ole Miss game produced six turnovers (three each), and Auburn's three takeaways at Georgia are how this underdog wins — if Ole Miss protects the ball, the path narrows sharply.

Texas–Ole Miss box score · LSU–Auburn box score

Field goals & field position

Ole Miss's Lucas Carneiro owns the longer verified leg (57) but missed a blocked 58-yarder at Texas; Auburn's Alex McPherson has a 55-yarder and a game-winner at Georgia on his résumé, though his full-season field-goal split was not published. Ole Miss's red-zone scoring was a perfect 24-for-24 through Week 7.

Auburn · Alex McPherson

1/1*vs LSU (Wk 8)
Long 55 (season)

At GeorgiaGame-winning FG

Career PATPerfect (94/94 thru Wk 7)

Season FG splitNot published*

PunterHudson Kaak

*Full-season makes/attempts were not published in the sources reviewed. LSU box score

Ole Miss · Lucas Carneiro

9/1275.0%
Long 57

At Texas2/3 (46, 39; 58 blocked)

PAT27/27*

Bird punts at Texas7 · 43.3 avg

KickoffsMcStravick (Carneiro foot)

*Reconstructed from official game logs through Week 8. Texas box score

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

275.1

Chambliss passing yards per game

1,926 yards in seven games, with 16 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing scores. His completion rate fell from 67.6% through Week 7 to 63.7% after the 52-attempt, 3-interception Texas game — the placement question this week is whether Austin was the exception.

DocSports · Texas box

No public adjusted completion %, on-target rate or deep-ball splits were found for either quarterback. Completion %, yards per attempt (Chambliss 7.3, Brown 6.5) and TD–INT ratio are used as labeled proxies.
Brown's rushing proxy: 480 yards and 6 TD on 126 carries — but the split is the story: 115 yards at Georgia, 21 yards on 19 carries vs LSU. Official yards-after-contact and explosive-run rates were not published.
Ole Miss explosive-run proxy: Frazier's 34-yard run at Texas and 7.8 yards a carry in relief of Lacy; Lacy's own season long-run data was not published.
Line-play proxy: sacks allowed and generated — Ole Miss 5 allowed in 7 games, Auburn 30 allowed — public line-yards and TFL-allowed splits were unavailable.

Bleacher Nation · Auburn official

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 8 (games of Oct. 24, 2026), compiled Sunday, October 25, 2026. Season totals marked as rebuilt combine published through-Week-7 figures with the Week 8 box scores. The official SEC availability report for Week 9 is not released until Wednesday — injury status below reflects the final Week 8 reports and Sunday beat reporting, and can change. Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 12:45 PM ET, SEC Network, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Weather is a preliminary six-day Open-Meteo forecast for the 11:45 AM CT kickoff hour. Ole Miss is shown at No. 7, its most recent official AP ranking (Oct. 18 poll); the Oct. 25 poll had not been released at build time — College Football News projects the Rebels No. 9. Betting lines can move.

FantasyData: Auburn odds boardOle Miss −11.5, total 57.5, moneyline −480 for Oct. 31; Auburn's full 2026 results.
The Sports Wire: Ole Miss 2026SP+ ratings (Ole Miss +17.1, No. 14; Auburn +8.9, No. 40); both models favor Ole Miss; Week 8 Texas recap.
Auburn Wire: ESPN FPI remaining scheduleFPI gives Auburn a 28.2% win probability at Ole Miss (Ole Miss 71.8%).
SEC Scouts: Auburn at Ole Miss previewProjection: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 23; Chambliss 275.1 yards a game. Its Auburn player labels were not relied on.
Clarion Ledger: Lacy shoulder update (Oct. 25)Lacy aggravated his left shoulder at Texas, did not return; Golding had no update; Lacy has 388 yards and 5 TD this season.
247Sports: Ole Miss Texas-game notesDavis dressed but did not play; Howes started at LT; Sanders hurt, returned and finished; Lacy setback.
Clarion Ledger: Week 8 availability reportJoseph out a second straight week; Broomfield and Preston out; Sanders probable by Friday.
Rebel Walk: Thursday availability reportFull Ole Miss out list vs Texas; Lacy, Kutas and Cunningham cleared.
DocSports: Chambliss season statsThrough six games: 1,676 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT, 67.6%, 127 rushing yards.
Bleacher Nation / Data Skrive: LSU at AuburnBrown through six games: 1,202 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT, 459 rushing yards; Singleton, Nimrod, Cobb lines.
Sportradar: Texas 34, Ole Miss 27 box scoreWeek 8 team and player totals: Chambliss 25/52 for 250, Lacy's exit, Carneiro 2/3, Crawford 2 INT.
Sportradar: LSU 38, Auburn 17 box scoreWeek 8 team and player totals: 552–271 yards, LSU 7 sacks, Brown 15/24 for 160, turnover-free game.
Auburn official: Byrum Brown profileBrown's 277.3 total yards a game (6th in SEC) and SEC-high 459 rushing yards by a QB through Week 7.
College Football News: AP poll predictionProjects Ole Miss No. 9 in the Oct. 25 AP poll after the Texas loss; official poll pending at build time.
VegasInsider: Auburn scheduleKickoff/TV confirmation: Oct. 31, 12:45 PM ET, SEC Network; Auburn's week-by-week results.
Open-Meteo forecast for Oxford, MSPreliminary kickoff-hour forecast: overcast (code 3), about 72°F, wind about 7 mph.