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5–2 (3–2 SEC)

(20) Florida

Gators
AT
6–1 (4–1 SEC)

(5) Georgia

Bulldogs
Saturday, Oct. 313:30 PM ETMercedes-Benz Stadium · AtlantaABCGeorgia −9.5Dome · Overcast outside · 74°F · Wind 8 mph

The call

Georgia owns the settled quarterback, the far stingier defense and five straight wins in this rivalry. Florida owns the best running back on the field, the better kicker and a bye week spent healing its receivers. Both teams are off a Week 8 bye; the Cocktail Party moves to Atlanta’s dome while Jacksonville’s stadium is renovated, with Georgia the designated home team.

Projected final
23—27

Georgia by four

Gunner Stockton’s efficiency (74.1%, 9.9 yards per attempt, 16 TD to 4 INT) behind a line allowing about a sack a game is the steadiest thing in a game full of question marks. Florida’s unresolved quarterback — Aaron Philo (shoulder) is questionable in week three of a reported three-to-four-week AC-joint recovery, and Tramell Jones Jr. would be making his second career start — plus a defense allowing 28.3 points per game against Georgia’s 15.9 keep the Gators a score short, even with Jadan Baugh shortening the game. Confidence: Medium — the winner is the consensus call, but Florida has covered in three of the last four meetings and lost last year’s game 24–20.

Why it lands there

  1. 01The quarterback gap. Stockton is a known quantity at an elite level — a 90.1 PFF grade, 12 big-time throws against five turnover-worthy plays. Florida either starts a limited Philo or a freshman coming off one start, however impressive his turnover-free win at Texas was.
  2. 02Georgia’s defense sets the floor. The Bulldogs allow 15.9 points per game and 4.2 yards per play (through Week 6), with 22 sacks. Florida allows 28.3 points per game — Georgia’s offense, averaging 43.0 points, needs only an ordinary day to reach the high 20s.
  3. 03Baugh keeps it inside one score. Baugh’s 763 yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 109.0 yards per game are Florida’s clock and red-zone engine, and Auburn just ran for 192 yards on this Georgia front. That, plus Patrick Durkin’s 11-of-12 kicking, is why Florida covers the 9.5 without winning.
  4. 04The bye-week reset favors the favorite. Georgia’s Week 7 collapse against Auburn — three giveaways, zero takeaways, a walk-off loss — came with safety KJ Bolden in a boot; Kirby Smart called him “hopeful” for this game. Georgia has won five straight in the series and Smart is 8–1 against Florida since his second season.
82.7%FPI: Georgia
30–21Georgia Moneyball model
27–23SEC Scouts projection
−9.5Spread: Georgia (Covers)
Sources: FPI & Moneyball, SEC Scouts, Covers, On3 / Crain & Cone

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Statistics are through Week 8 — both teams played seven games and were idle in Week 8. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Florida QB vs Georgia pass D

Georgia · moderate
Philo / Jones Jr.
Philo comp. / YPA70.5% · 9.0
Philo TD–INT9–3 · 1,341 yds
Jones Jr. season407 yds · 4–2
Jones at Texas22/35 · 155 · 2–0
Georgia coverage
Pass yds allowed185.0/g
Opp. pass efficiency114.3
Points allowed15.9/g
Bolden (S)Hopeful · 22 tkl · 1 INT

Read: Philo’s raw line is genuinely good — second in the SEC in completion rate — but he is questionable with a shoulder (AC joint) injury in week three of a reported three-to-four-week recovery, and Florida gave no injury updates during its bye. Jones Jr. was turnover-free in his first start at Texas, but for 155 yards at 4.4 per attempt; Georgia’s pass defense is the best either Florida quarterback has faced.

On3 Philo · Florida roster bio · GatorBait (Oct. 23) · UGA Wire Bolden update

Georgia QB vs Florida pass D

Georgia · moderate
Gunner Stockton
Comp.117/158 · 74.1%
Yards / att.9.9 · 1,570 yds
TD–INT16–4 · rating 185.9
PFF grade90.1 · passing 88.1
Florida coverage
Pass yds allowed266.6/g*
Team INT4*
At Texas (Week 7)173 yds · 5 sacks
Points allowed28.3/g

Read: Stockton’s worst game of the season — two interceptions and a late fumble against Auburn — is Florida’s template, and the Gators’ five-sack day at Texas showed a pass rush that can hurry him. But season-long, Florida’s coverage is the leakiest unit in this game (*through Week 6), and Stockton was checked for a concussion against Auburn, returned, and has had the bye to clear protocol.

On3 Stockton · PFF Stockton · Concussion check report

Florida RBs vs Georgia front

Florida · slight
Jadan Baugh and company
Baugh rushing135 · 763 · 13 TD
Baugh per game / carry109.0 · 5.7
Team rush~200/g*
At Texas46 att · 158 yds
Georgia front
Rush yds allowed57–75/g*
Per carry allowed2.5*
Vs Auburn (Week 7)192 yds allowed
Team sacks22

Read: The season-long numbers say Georgia’s run defense is elite (*through Week 6) — but Auburn’s quarterback-led ground game just hung 192 rushing yards on it, and Baugh is an AP Midseason All-American with a 50.6% breakaway rate and 36 missed tackles forced through Week 6. Florida’s clearest path is 25-plus Baugh carries; Duke Clark (ankle) was out at Texas, leaving Evan Pryor and London Montgomery behind him.

On3 Baugh · Florida / AP honor

Georgia RBs vs Florida front

Georgia · slight
Georgia rushing
Yards / game~198
Phillips Jr.47 · 348 · 7.4/carry
Walker~6.8/carry*
FrazierReturned vs Auburn
Florida front
Rush yds allowed126.4/g*
Per carry allowed~3.9*
At Texas (Week 7)99 yds allowed
Team sacks22

Read: Georgia’s committee lost Chauncey Bowens for the season (Lisfranc) and has been banged up all year, but Phillips Jr. at 7.4 per carry and Nate Frazier’s return give it fresh legs after the bye. Florida’s front stiffened at Texas (99 rushing yards allowed), yet Missouri and South Carolina both ran through it earlier in October.

Official Georgia statistics · UGA Wire (RB room)

Florida WR/TE vs Georgia DBs

Florida · slight
Gators pass catchers
D. Wilson26 rec (team lead)*
Brown III (Q, knee)17 · 271 · 2 TD*
B. Stockton23 · 258 · 2 TD*
Dippre (TE)2 TD at Texas
Georgia DBs
Pass yds allowed185.0/g
Bolden (S)Hopeful · missed Auburn
Green (S)Out (ankle)*
Team INT4*

Read: Florida spent the bye healing this exact room: Vernell Brown III has missed three straight games (knee) and is hopeful to return, and Eric Singleton Jr. and Bailey Stockton played slowed at Texas. At full strength against a Georgia safety room missing Tyriq Green and possibly KJ Bolden, this is Florida’s one skill-position edge — and it evaporates if Brown sits again.

GatorBait (Oct. 23) · Injury listings · UGA Wire

Georgia WR/TE vs Florida DBs

Georgia · slight
Bulldogs pass catchers
Pass offense263.0/g*
Dandridge4 · 88 vs Auburn
Taylor4 · 110 · 1 vs Oklahoma*
Luckie (TE)TD vs Auburn
Florida DBs
Pass yds allowed266.6/g*
Johnson2 INT*
Team INT4*
At Texas (Week 7)173 yds allowed

Read: Georgia spreads it around — no single Florida corner can be avoided, and Isiah Canion and Thomas Blackshear remain out without thinning the rotation that produced against Auburn (Dandridge 88 yards, Taylor 64). Florida’s secondary takes the ball away just often enough, and its Week 7 form was its best of the season, to keep this from being a bigger edge.

Official Georgia statistics · On3 Stockton game log

Florida OL vs Georgia DL

Georgia · slight
Gators protection
Sacks allowed8*
At Texas1 sack allowed
HonorJoe Moore midseason roll
Run-block grade70.2*
Georgia pressure
Team sacks22 · 5 vs Auburn
WilsonTeam LB leader
ColeTeam-high pressures*
Yds / play allowed4.2*

Read: Florida’s line is its best unit and just held Texas to one sack, but it cracked for three sacks and 11 tackles for loss in the two games before that. Georgia’s pressure is distributed — five different Bulldogs recorded sacks against Auburn — and whoever starts at quarterback for Florida will feel it on third-and-long.

Official Georgia statistics · Florida (OL honors)

Georgia OL vs Florida DL

Georgia · slight
Bulldogs protection
Sacks allowed8 · ~1.1/game
TFL allowed2.67/game*
At Alabama1 sack · 206 rush yds
3rd-down offense54.7%*
Florida pressure
Team sacks22 · 5 at Texas
GrahamGame-icing strip-sack
McCray1.5 sacks at Texas
TFL at Texas11

Read: Florida’s front is the Gators’ defensive strength — Myles Graham’s strip-sack of Arch Manning sealed the Texas upset — but Georgia’s line is the SEC’s best protection unit (first in the SEC in tackles for loss allowed through Week 6) and Marcus Harrison’s clearance keeps it intact. Stockton’s 2.51-second average time to throw does the rest.

PFF Stockton (time to throw) · Official Georgia statistics

Possession pressure

Nearly even on the season — Georgia +3, Florida +2 — but the last game each team played flipped both profiles: Georgia lost the turnover battle 0–3 to Auburn, and Florida won it 1–0 at Texas without a single giveaway.

Georgia margin+3

11 takeaways · 8 giveaways

Florida margin+2

9 takeaways · 7 giveaways

Georgia points off TO62–19

Scored vs allowed, through Week 6

Florida points off TO42–3

Scored vs allowed, through Week 5

What remains open: Stockton had thrown two interceptions all season before Auburn intercepted him twice and Cody Sigler stripped him in the final minute — three Georgia giveaways in one afternoon. Florida’s quarterback choice cuts both ways: Philo has three interceptions in six starts, while Jones Jr. protected the ball at Texas but has two interceptions in relief work. One short field either way swings a four-point projection.
Official Georgia statistics · On3 Philo · On3 Stockton game log

Field goals & field position

Florida holds the kicking edge: Durkin is 11-of-12 with a 53-yard long, while Woodring is 7-of-9 after a blocked kick against Auburn. Georgia’s punter owns the bigger gross average on a small sample; Florida’s Clark is the steadier field-position weapon. Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s roof removes wind from the equation entirely.

Florida · Patrick Durkin

11/1291.7%
Long 53
At Texas2/2 · 45 & 28 yds
PAT34/34
ProfileTulane transfer · Groza watch
Clark gross punt avg.46.8 · long 70
On3 (Texas game log)

Georgia · Peyton Woodring

7/977.8%
Long 49
Vs Auburn1/2 · 42 make · 1 blocked
PAT38/38 · team streak 210+
Career FG~88%
Miller gross punt avg.48.8* · long 65
*Through Week 6, 12 punts; 36.3 avg. vs Auburn. Official Georgia statistics

Ball placement & rushing upside

Both quarterbacks have real tracking data this year. Where premium metrics were unavailable — Jones Jr.’s splits, explosive-run rates — the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

14 / 26

Philo on throws of 20+ air yards

459 yards and 3 touchdowns, with a 61.5% adjusted deep completion rate — fifth-best in the FBS — and an 80.7% overall adjusted completion rate, seventh-best nationally. If his shoulder is right, Philo is the more dangerous downfield passer in this game.

Florida roster bio (PFF splits)
  • Stockton’s tracking line: 90.1 PFF overall grade (88.1 passing), 12 big-time throws against 5 turnover-worthy plays, 8.7-yard average depth of target and a 2.51-second average time to throw through 178 dropbacks.
  • No public on-target or adjusted-completion split was found for Jones Jr.; his proxy is the Texas start itself — 22-of-35, zero turnovers, 4.4 yards per attempt, a manage-the-game profile.
  • Baugh’s explosive proxy: 50.6% breakaway rate and 36 missed tackles forced through Week 6 (PFF via Florida), a 75-yard long run, and 5.7 yards per carry on 135 carries for the season.
  • Georgia’s rushing proxy: Phillips Jr. at 7.4 yards per carry and a team mark near 198 yards per game; no public yards-after-contact split was found for either backfield.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed (Florida 8 through Week 6 plus one at Texas; Georgia eight all season) and sacks generated (22 each); public line-yards splits were unavailable.
PFF Stockton · Florida (Baugh PFF figures)

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 8, compiled Sunday, October 25, 2026; both teams were idle in Week 8, so season totals run through the Week 7 games of October 17. The Week 9 SEC availability report had not been published as of October 25 — injury statuses below come from bye-week beat reporting and the Week 7 reports, and Florida’s starting quarterback may not be confirmed until game day. The Oct. 25 AP poll had not moved either team in the last confirmed poll (Week 8: Georgia No. 5, Florida No. 20); a predicted Oct. 25 reshuffle in one outlet is not treated as official. Weather is the Open-Meteo forecast for Atlanta at kickoff; Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a retractable-roof dome, so conditions inside are controlled and weather is not a factor. An asterisk in the matchup cards marks a through-Week 6 (or Week 5, where noted) figure carried forward with the Week 7 box score.

  1. Official Georgia season statistics PDFTeam, player, kicking, punting and turnover totals.
  2. On3 — Gunner Stockton 2026 line & game log117/158, 1,570 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT, 185.9 rating through seven games.
  3. PFF — Gunner Stockton profile90.1 overall grade, big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, depth of target, time to throw.
  4. On3 — Aaron Philo 2026 line & game log105/149, 1,341 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT in six starts.
  5. Florida roster bio — Aaron PhiloAdjusted completion rates, deep-ball splits and PFF grades via Florida.
  6. On3 — Jadan Baugh 2026 line & game log135 carries, 763 yards, 13 TD through seven games.
  7. Florida — Baugh AP Midseason All-AmericaBreakaway rate, missed tackles forced and FBS rushing-TD lead.
  8. SEC Scouts — Florida at Georgia previewExpert projection: Georgia 27, Florida 23; per-game production comparison.
  9. Covers — rivalry history, odds & pickGeorgia −9.5; Florida covers in three of the last four; 2025 result 24–20 Georgia; series and Atlanta venue notes.
  10. Pretoria Fields — Dawg Sports Report (Oct. 18)ESPN FPI 82.7% Georgia; Georgia Moneyball model 30–21 (70%); quarterback and injury context.
  11. 247Sports — ESPN FPI schedule predictionsFPI win probability and Florida’s FPI ranking.
  12. On3 — Crain & Cone Florida predictionsUnanimous Georgia pick from all three panelists.
  13. UGA Wire — Georgia 2026 game-by-game predictionsGeorgia 27, Florida 20 preseason projection.
  14. UGA Wire — Georgia AP poll after Auburn lossGeorgia No. 5, Florida No. 20 after Week 7; records and bye-week setup.
  15. Gators Wire — Florida back in AP Top 25Florida No. 20 (355 points), Coaches No. 24; Texas win and Jones Jr. start.
  16. GatorBait Media — Florida-Georgia outlook (Oct. 23)Philo AC-joint timeline; receiver corps healing over the bye; Jones Jr. preparation.
  17. UGA Wire — KJ Bolden injury update (Oct. 21)Bolden hopeful per Kirby Smart; 22 tackles, 1 INT; Georgia’s banged-up backfield.
  18. Boyds Bets — college football injury reportPhilo questionable (shoulder) and Brown III questionable (knee) for Oct. 31.
  19. Sports Illustrated — Florida QB change for TexasJones Jr. first start; Philo limited by shoulder; Sumrall comments.
  20. Open-Meteo — Atlanta forecast, Oct. 31Overcast, about 74°F and 8 mph wind at 3:30 PM ET outside the dome.