Coach Snark
Your Source For Tennessee Volunteers Football
SEC Weekly Previews and Results  ·  Coach Memes  ·  Podcast
SEC Week 9 · Halloween Night in Austin
4–3 (2–3 SEC)

Mississippi State

Bulldogs
AT
5–2 (2–2 SEC)

(19) Texas

Longhorns
Saturday, Oct. 317:30 PM ETDarrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium · AustinESPNDrizzle · 80°F · Wind 4 mph

The call

Mississippi State owns the more explosive healthy quarterback. Texas owns the defense, the home field and the healthier roster — and Kamario Taylor re-aggravated his right-foot injury last week. That is the whole game.

Projected final
17—31

Texas by 14

The Longhorns allow 19.1 points and 4.2 yards per play, and Mississippi State has scored 38 points total in three games since Taylor got hurt — 23 at Alabama, zero at LSU, 15 against Oklahoma. Texas’s own injury list keeps this from running away.

Why it lands there

  1. 01Taylor’s foot decides MSU’s ceiling. He exited the Oklahoma loss in the first quarter after re-aggravating the injury that cost him the LSU game; the Bulldogs have played eight of their last nine quarters without him at full strength.
  2. 02Texas defends the pass; MSU doesn’t. The Longhorns allow 178.1 passing yards per game with six interceptions. The Bulldogs allow 267.4 per game, a 67.2% completion rate and have picked off two passes all season.
  3. 03The Texas ground game just woke up. Raleek Brown ran for 157 yards and Texas for 207 against Ole Miss, with Hollywood Smothers out. Mississippi State allows 124.6 rushing yards per game.
  4. 04Turnovers have buried the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is −4 with 52 points allowed off turnovers against 24 scored. Texas is also negative (−3), which is the main reason this stays a two-score game instead of a rout.
+21.1 vs +7.3SP+ ratings: Texas No. 8, MSU No. 47
57.4%FPI: Texas CFP odds after Ole Miss win
27–13Clarion Ledger: Texas
38–31SEC Scouts: Texas
Sources: SP+ ratings, FPI via Saturday Down South, Clarion Ledger, SEC Scouts

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight. Season figures run through Week 8 (Oct. 24 games included).

Mississippi State QB vs Texas pass D

Texas · moderate
Kamario Taylor / Parker Puckett
Taylor comp.65.4%
Taylor yards / att.9.2
Taylor TD–INT17–4
Puckett64.1% · 1–2
Texas coverage
Pass yds allowed178.1/g
Comp. allowed58.5%
INT6
Pass TD allowed6

Read: A healthy Taylor (243.3 passing yards per game, 172.8 efficiency) is the best player in this game. But he lasted one quarter against Oklahoma on the bad right foot, and Texas just intercepted Trinidad Chambliss three times, the last by Jelani McDonald in the end zone on the final play. If Puckett plays extended snaps, this edge grows.

Mississippi State · Texas · Ole Miss–Texas box · Taylor injury

Texas QB vs Mississippi State pass D

Texas · moderate
Arch Manning
Comp.63.3%
Yards / att.7.7
Pass yards1,507
TD–INT12–7
Mississippi State coverage
Pass yds allowed267.4/g
Comp. allowed67.2%
Yards / att. allowed7.6
INT2

Read: Manning was 18-of-30 for 212 yards with a 50-yard touchdown to Ryan Wingo against Ole Miss — and two interceptions plus a strip-sack fumble that became a Rebels touchdown. The opportunity is real: Mississippi State has allowed 15 passing touchdowns and intercepted two passes in seven games. So is the self-inflicted risk.

Texas · Mississippi State · Manning vs Ole Miss

Mississippi State RBs vs Texas front

Texas · slight
Bulldogs rushing
Bothwell91 att · 514 yds
Bothwell / carry5.6
Team yards / game175.0
Team / carry4.7
Texas front
Allowed / game107.3
Allowed / carry3.0
Rush TD allowed4 in 6 gms*
Sacks19

Read: Fluff Bothwell is Mississippi State’s most reliable healthy weapon — 111 yards on 17 carries against Oklahoma was the Bulldogs’ best Week 8 sign, and his 85.7 yards per game lead the team. Texas’s 3.0 yards per carry allowed is the stiffest test he has faced since Alabama. *Rush TD allowed through Week 7.

Mississippi State · Texas · Oklahoma–MSU box

Texas RBs vs Mississippi State front

Texas
Longhorns rushing
Brown84 att · 422 yds · 5.0
Brown vs Ole Miss23 att · 157 yds
Smothers65 att · 289 yds
Team yards / game145.3
Mississippi State front
Allowed / game124.6
Allowed / carry3.7
Team TFL35
Team sacks16

Read: Texas ran for a season-best-in-SEC-play 207 yards against Ole Miss behind Brown’s 47- and 28-yard bursts, and that was without Hollywood Smothers, whose Week 9 status is unknown after he sat out Week 8. Mississippi State’s front is respectable, not dominant — Oklahoma just ran for 184 on it.

Texas · Mississippi State · Ole Miss recap

Mississippi State WR/TE vs Texas DBs

Texas · slight
Primary targets
Evans III53 · 647 · 5 TD
Magee22 · 360 · 6 TD
Ragins14 · 209 · 4 TD
Longhorn DBs
McDonaldGame-sealing INT vs Ole Miss
Biles2 INT*
Team178.1 yds/g · 6 INT

Read: Anthony Evans III (92.4 receiving yards per game) and Sanfrisco Magee (16.4 per catch, team-high six receiving TDs) can win one-on-one. The problem is delivery: with Taylor limited or out, this group saw 121 passing yards at LSU and 186 against Oklahoma. *Biles interceptions through Week 7.

Mississippi State · Texas

Texas WR/TE vs Mississippi State DBs

Texas · moderate
Primary targets
Wingo vs Ole Miss7 · 111 · 1 TD
ColemanShoulder · status unknown
Mosley V292 rec. yds*
Bulldog DBs
Jefferson9 PD
Jones7 PD
Team267.4 yds/g · 2 INT

Read: Ryan Wingo’s 111-yard night against Ole Miss is the template, and Mississippi State’s secondary breaks up passes (33 team PD) without finishing them. Cam Coleman’s shoulder injury — he left the Ole Miss game on its first third-quarter play and did not return — is the one thing that can shrink this edge. *Mosley receiving yards through Week 7.

Ole Miss recap · Mississippi State · Texas injuries

Mississippi State OL vs Texas DL

Texas · slight
Bulldogs protection
Sacks allowed21
TFL allowed41
Vs Oklahoma4 sacks allowed
Texas pressure
Team sacks19
Simmons10.5 sacks · 16 TFL*
Vs Ole Miss0 sacks, Simmons out

Read: On paper Texas wins this: Mississippi State has allowed three sacks a game, and Colin Simmons personally owns more than half of Texas’s sack total. In practice, Simmons (ankle) missed the Ole Miss game, Texas recorded zero sacks without him, and his Week 9 status is unknown. If he sits again, a limited Taylor gets the one break he needs. *Simmons totals through Week 7.

Mississippi State · Texas · Ole Miss recap

Texas OL vs Mississippi State DL

Mississippi State · slight
Texas protection
Sacks allowed19
Goosby (LT)Carted off vs Ole Miss
ReplacementAndre Cojoe
Mississippi State pressure
Team sacks16
Bledsoe2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
Whitson2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL

Read: The Bulldogs’ one trench edge is circumstantial: preseason All-American left tackle Trevor Goosby was carted off in the first quarter against Ole Miss, finished the night on crutches, and Steve Sarkisian said the injury “didn’t look very good.” Mississippi State’s pressure is spread thin — no Bulldog has more than 2.5 sacks — but a backup left tackle against a fresh front is where MSU can manufacture the negative plays its offense needs.

Texas · Mississippi State · Goosby / Coleman injuries

Possession pressure

Neither team protects its margin. Mississippi State’s giveaways have simply cost far more: opponents have turned them into 52 points, the hidden engine of the Bulldogs’ three-game slide.

Mississippi State margin−4

10 giveaways · 6 takeaways

Texas margin−3

11 giveaways · 8 takeaways

Points allowed off MSU turnovers52

Against just 24 scored off takeaways

Texas interceptions6

Three against Ole Miss in Week 8 alone

What remains open: Both quarterbacks are live turnover risks. Manning gave it away three times against Ole Miss (two interceptions, one strip-sack returned for a touchdown), and a hobbled Taylor turned it over three times at Alabama before the injury shut him down. Texas has scored 21 points off turnovers and allowed 27; whichever quarterback plays cleanest likely decides whether this is a two-score game or a fourth-quarter one.
Official Mississippi State statistics · Official Texas statistics · Ole Miss–Texas box score

Field goals & field position

Both kickers have one miss all season and a 52-yard make. The separator is punting and chaos: Mississippi State nets 38.6 yards a punt, and Texas just survived an onside-kick recovery and needed a blocked 58-yard field goal to close out Ole Miss.

Mississippi State · Kyle Ferrie

7/887.5%
Long 52
20–292/3
30–393/3
40–491/1
50+1/1
PAT25/25
Pulliam punt avg. / net40.4 / 38.6
Official team stats

Texas · Gianni Spetic

11/1291.7%
Long 52
Vs Ole Miss2/2 (23, 33)
PAT26/26
Red-zone scoring (team)26/28 · 93%
Team punt avg.*41.3
Blocked FG vs Ole MissAlex January, 58-yd att.
*Team punting average through Week 7. Official team stats · Ole Miss recap

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

9.2

Taylor’s yards per pass attempt

1,460 yards on 159 attempts with a 172.8 efficiency rating and an 83.4 QBR (13th nationally) — elite placement numbers, compiled almost entirely before the right-foot injury that has defined Mississippi State’s last three games.

Mississippi State · QBR via Saturday Down South
  • No public on-target or adjusted completion rates were found for either quarterback. Completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR are the placement proxies used here: Taylor 65.4% / 9.2 YPA against Manning’s 63.3% / 7.7 YPA.
  • Manning’s deep-ball proxy: a 50-yard touchdown strike to Ryan Wingo against Ole Miss, part of Wingo’s 7-catch, 111-yard night — evidence the vertical game works when the protection holds.
  • Explosive-run proxy: Brown’s 47- and 28-yard fourth-quarter runs against Ole Miss, on his way to 157 yards; he averages 5.0 per carry for the season. Bothwell answers at 5.6 per carry with 514 yards in six games.
  • Team efficiency proxy: Mississippi State averages 6.3 yards per play (439.7 yards per game) but just 12.7 points per game over its last three; Texas allows 4.2 yards per play (285.4 per game) — the widest single gap on the page.
Texas · Manning vs Ole Miss

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 8, compiled Sunday, October 25, 2026 — Texas figures combine the official cumulative PDF through Oct. 17 with the verified Ole Miss box score. The SEC’s Week 9 availability report had not been released at build time (the first report is due Wednesday); injury statuses come from Week 8 availability reports and postgame beat reporting, and Jeff Lebby said Mississippi State would know more about Taylor on Monday. Texas is shown at No. 19, its Week 8 AP ranking and its ranking on the Week 9 pick chart: the Week 9 AP poll had not been released Sunday morning, and projections after the Ole Miss win move Texas up. No verified 2026 betting line was published in the sources reviewed, so none is shown.

  1. Official Mississippi State season statistics PDF (through Oct. 24)Team, player, kicking, punting and turnover totals: 30.0 points per game, 439.7 yards per game, 6.3 yards per play, −4 turnover margin.
  2. Official Texas season statistics PDF (through Oct. 17)Team, player, kicking, punting and turnover totals, updated on this page with the Week 8 box score.
  3. Texas 34, Ole Miss 27 — Week 8 box scoreVerified Week 8 result: Texas 419 yards, 207 rushing, three takeaways; Manning 18-of-30 for 212 yards.
  4. Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15 — Week 8 box scoreVerified Week 8 result: Taylor 2-of-5 before exiting; Puckett 17-of-24 for 158; Bothwell 111 rushing yards.
  5. Clarion Ledger — Taylor re-injury and the Texas tripBeat reporting: Taylor re-aggravated the injury vs Oklahoma; status for Texas undecided postgame.
  6. USA Today — Taylor availability historySEC availability reports: questionable all week vs Oklahoma, out vs LSU, boot on his right foot.
  7. Sports Illustrated — Texas injury updatesGoosby carted off, Coleman shoulder, Simmons and Smothers already out in Week 8.
  8. On3 — Sarkisian postgame, Ole Miss“Neither of them looked very good” on Goosby and Coleman; team won without Simmons and Smothers.
  9. The Sports Wire — SP+ ratings and model snapshotSP+: Texas +21.1 (No. 8), Mississippi State +7.3 (No. 47); both of its models favor Texas.
  10. Saturday Down South — Texas response, FPI outlookESPN FPI gives Texas a 57.4% chance of reaching the CFP after the Ole Miss win.
  11. Longhorns Wire — ESPN FPI matchup predictorPreseason FPI gave Texas a 95.8% win probability in this matchup; listed for context, not as a current-week figure.
  12. Clarion Ledger — 2026 game-by-game predictionsExpert pick: Texas 27, Mississippi State 13.
  13. SEC Scouts — Mississippi State at Texas previewExpert pick: Texas 38, Mississippi State 31.
  14. Clarion Ledger — Week 9 kickoff announcementSaturday, Oct. 31, 6:30 p.m. CT in Austin on ESPN; Texas won last year’s meeting in overtime after trailing by 17 in the fourth quarter.
  15. Open-Meteo forecast — Austin, kickoff hour6:30 p.m. CT, Oct. 31: about 80°F, drizzle (WMO code 53), 12% precipitation probability, wind about 4 mph. Forecast a week out; expect revision.