Your Source For Tennessee Volunteers Football
4–3 (2–3 SEC) · Unranked

South Carolina

Gamecocks
AT
4–3 (2–2 SEC) · Unranked

Oklahoma

Sooners
Saturday, Oct. 314:15 PM ETGaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium · NormanSEC NetworkLight drizzle · 62°F · Wind 6 mph

The call

Both teams are 4–3 and coming off Week 8 wins — South Carolina 27–24 over No. 11 Tennessee, Oklahoma 23–15 at Mississippi State. The Gamecocks have the hotter quarterback run and the far better kicker. Oklahoma has the better defense, the home field, and a quarterback who just played his cleanest game of the season.

Projected final · Oklahoma first
27—23

Oklahoma by four

John Mateer's turnover-free 283-yard day at Mississippi State, a defense that held the Bulldogs to 1-of-11 on third down, and Michael Fasusi's return at left tackle outweigh South Carolina's momentum — but Malik Orsan's leg keeps the Gamecocks inside one score to the end.

Why it lands there

  1. 01Mateer, cleaned up. After three interceptions at Kentucky, Mateer went 22-of-29 for 283 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers in Week 8 — his best game of the season.
  2. 02The Sooner defense travels home. Four sacks, six tackles for loss and a 1-of-11 third-down line at Mississippi State; Oklahoma has allowed 124 points in seven games (17.7 per game).
  3. 03Protection, repaired. Oklahoma allowed one sack in Week 8 with Fasusi back, after Kentucky sacked Mateer five times the week before.
  4. 04South Carolina's counter is real. Back-to-back ranked wins, LaNorris Sellers accounting for three touchdowns against Tennessee, and a 10-of-12 kicker facing a 10-of-16 kicker — that is why this is four points, not ten.
70.7%FPI: Oklahoma
OU by 2.3SP+ margin
OU by 6.0Sagarin margin
27–20SEC Scouts: Oklahoma

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight. Season figures are through Week 8 unless a game is named; several team tables below were last published through six games and are labeled as such.

South Carolina QB vs Sooners pass D

Oklahoma · moderate
LaNorris Sellers
Comp.60.7%
Yards / att.7.1
TD–INT13–5
Vs Tennessee210 pass · 96 rush · 3 TD
Oklahoma coverage
Pass yds allowed at MSU186
Third downs at MSU1 of 11
BowenINT at MSU

Read: Sellers is the most dangerous player in this game — 507 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to go with 1,548 passing yards — but he threw a pick against Tennessee and now faces a secondary led by Peyton Bowen, whose end-zone interception sealed the Mississippi State win. Bowen did not finish that game after a hit on the return; Brent Venables said afterward, “I think he'll be fine.” His status is the single biggest variable in this matchup.

Oklahoma QB vs Gamecocks pass D

Oklahoma · slight
John Mateer
Through Week 765.1% · 1,308 yds · 9–7
At Mississippi State22/29 · 283 · 2–0
Long pass at MSU54 yards
South Carolina coverage
Pass yds allowed*237.2/g
Comp. allowed*67.6%
Team INT*4

Read: Two different Mateers exist this season: the one who threw three interceptions at Kentucky and the one who was near-flawless in Starkville. South Carolina's coverage numbers (*through six games) are the softest part of its defense — opponents complete two of every three throws — so the Week 8 version of Mateer gets the edge, narrowly.

South Carolina RBs vs Sooners front

Oklahoma · slight
Gamecocks rushing*
Yards / game232.3
Yards / carry6.0
Fuller485 yds · 6.0 · 5 TD
Coleman212 yds · 7.9 · 4 TD
Oklahoma front
Rush yds allowed at MSU166
Team TFL at MSU6
Points allowed17.7/g

Read: South Carolina's raw rushing line (*through six games) is inflated by 102 points against Kent State and Towson, and Tennessee held the Gamecocks to 134 rushing yards once Sellers' 96 are separated from the backs — Fuller managed 28 yards on nine carries. Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell did get 111 on Oklahoma, so the edge is only slight.

Oklahoma RBs vs Gamecocks front

South Carolina · slight
Oklahoma rushing
At Mississippi State184 yds · 4.5/carry
Blaylock at MSU12 for 71
Avant at MSU13 for 55
South Carolina front*
Rush yds allowed103.7/g
Allowed / carry3.2
Rush TD allowed0.7/g

Read: Oklahoma's 184 yards in Starkville was its best rushing day in SEC play, but South Carolina's run defense (*through six games) is its best unit — 3.2 yards per carry allowed. Tennessee's 184 rushing yards in Week 8, 120 of them from DeSean Bishop, is the caution: the Gamecocks can be leaned on for four quarters.

South Carolina WR/TE vs Sooners DBs

Oklahoma · slight
Primary targets*
Harbor278 · 16.4 · 2 TD
Bennett Jr.236 · 9.4 · 2 TD
Murph191 · 21.2 · 3 TD
Bennett vs Tennessee6 for 88 · TD
Sooners DBs
BowenTeam leader · INT at MSU
GuilloryTop-graded CB vs Texas
Pass yds allowed at MSU186

Read: Donovan Murph's 21.2 yards per catch and Nyck Harbor's size make South Carolina (*receiving through six games, plus Bennett's Week 8 line) a genuine vertical threat. But Oklahoma's corners — Courtland Guillory intercepted Texas and played every snap in that upset — have held up against better passing attacks.

Oklahoma WR/TE vs Gamecocks DBs

Oklahoma · moderate
Primary targets
Sategna at MSU8 for 164 · TD
Beers at MSU4 for 66 · TD
Sategna long at MSU54 yards
Gamecocks DBs*
Williams31 tackles · INT
SwainINT · 3 PD · 2 PR TD
Team PD17

Read: Isaiah Sategna III just produced Oklahoma's biggest receiving day of the season — 164 yards, including Mateer's longest completion of the year — against a comparable secondary. South Carolina's Vicari Swain is a playmaker in coverage and on punt returns, but the Gamecocks give up completions at a 67.6% rate (*through six games).

South Carolina OL vs Sooners DL

Oklahoma · moderate
Gamecocks protection
Sacks allowed vs Tennessee5
Sellers sack rate6.0% of attempts
Oklahoma pressure
Sacks at MSU4
TFL at MSU6
Sacks, first five games15

Read: Tennessee sacked Sellers five times in Week 8, and Oklahoma's four sacks and six tackles for loss at Mississippi State were its best marks in conference play. Sellers escapes plenty — his legs are the counter — but the Sooners can force the long-yardage downs where his interception risk rises. South Carolina also played the Tennessee game without starting tackle Josiah Thompson, who was on its most recent published availability reports as out; the Week 9 report will confirm whether that has changed.

Oklahoma OL vs Gamecocks DL

South Carolina · slight
Oklahoma protection
Sacks allowed vs Kentucky5
Sacks allowed at MSU1
FasusiReturned at MSU
South Carolina pressure*
Team sacks16 in 6 games
Addison3.0 sacks
Durojaiye4.5 TFL · 2.0 sacks
Stewart vs TennesseeStrip-sack, 0:33 left

Read: This is South Carolina's best path to an upset. Dylan Stewart — back since Oct. 10 after a one-game suspension, following a back injury that cost him the season's first two games — strip-sacked George MacIntyre with 33 seconds left to set up the winning kick against Tennessee; it was the ninth forced fumble of his career, tying Jadeveon Clowney's program record. Oklahoma's line is healthier with five-star left tackle Michael Fasusi back after missing every game since the opener, but center Jake Maikkula and defensive back Reggie Powers both went down at Mississippi State, and replacement tackle Ryan Fodje and Eddy Pierre-Louis were already out.

Possession pressure

Neither quarterback has protected the ball well across the full season — Mateer's seven interceptions through Week 7 are the worst mark in this matchup — but both were at their cleanest in Week 8's decisive moments: Mateer threw none, and Stewart's strip-sack, not a Sellers mistake, decided South Carolina's game.

Mateer interceptions7

Through Week 7 · none in Week 8

Sellers interceptions5

13 TD against them · 1 vs Tennessee

Stewart forced fumbles9

Career · ties Clowney's school record

Week 8 takeaways1 each

Bowen INT · Stewart strip-sack

What remains open: Complete season turnover margins for both teams were not published in the sources reviewed, so no exact margin is presented here. The SEC Week 9 availability report had not been published as of Sunday, Oct. 25 — the first report is due Wednesday night — so Bowen's status after leaving the Mississippi State game, plus Maikkula's and Powers', is unconfirmed. Venables said Bowen should be fine. South Carolina reported no new major injury out of the Tennessee win; kicker Malik Orsan joked postgame that he would be good to go for Oklahoma.

Field goals & field position

The clearest single edge in the game belongs to South Carolina: Orsan is 10-of-12 with a walk-off 48-yarder fresh in memory, while the reigning Lou Groza Award winner, Tate Sandell, is 10-of-16 and just missed three kicks in one afternoon.

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

22 / 29

Mateer's Week 8 line at Mississippi State

75.9% completions, 283 yards, 9.8 yards per attempt and completions of 54 and 49 yards to Sategna — the best available single-game proxy for the placement Oklahoma needs from him, after a 60.0%, three-interception day at Kentucky.

  • No public adjusted-completion or on-target rates were found for either starter. PFF's Sellers file through six games is the best proxy available: 70.7 overall grade, 8.8-yard average depth of target, 2.99-second average time to throw, six big-time throws against nine turnover-worthy plays, and 353 scramble yards.
  • Sellers' rushing upside is the game's explosive proxy: 6.1 yards per carry through six games, 96 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against Tennessee alone.
  • South Carolina's backfield explosiveness: Jabree Coleman at 7.9 yards per carry and Matt Fuller at 6.0 (*through six games); Oklahoma countered with a 4.5-yard team average at Mississippi State, Blaylock 5.9 per carry in that game.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed and generated — South Carolina allowed five sacks in Week 8; Oklahoma allowed one, with Fasusi back, after allowing five the week before.

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 8, compiled October 25, 2026. The SEC Week 9 availability report had not been published as of that date (first report due Wednesday), so all injury status here is drawn from Week 8 reporting and postgame comments and can change. Neither team appeared in the Week 8 AP Top 25 or in the projected Week 9 poll, so both are shown as unranked. Kickoff weather is the Open-Meteo forecast for Norman at 3:15 PM CT on Oct. 31. Expert and model consensus, cited here only: FPI, SP+, Sagarin, Elo and SRS all favor Oklahoma; SEC Scouts, the Greenville News and The Oklahoman all pick Oklahoma; Sonny Moore's rating is the lone model favoring South Carolina, by 0.9.

  1. Vols Wire (USA Today): South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24Records, Orsan's walk-off 48-yarder, Sellers' three touchdowns.
  2. Sooners Wire (USA Today): Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15Oklahoma 4–3 (2–2 SEC), Sandell's three misses, Mateer's clean game.
  3. Sports-Reference: 2026 South Carolina statisticsTeam offense/defense, Sellers, Fuller, Coleman, receiving, defense and kicking through six games.
  4. RotoWire: LaNorris Sellers season totals1,548 passing yards, 13 TD, 5 INT; 507 rushing yards, 4 TD through Week 8.
  5. PFF: LaNorris Sellers profileGrades, depth of target, time to throw, big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, scramble yards.
  6. ClutchPoints: Mateer totals and Fasusi's returnMateer 65.1%, 1,308 yards, 9–7 through Week 7; Fasusi back; Fodje and Pierre-Louis out.
  7. The Oklahoman: Mateer and Sategna at Mississippi State22-of-29, 283 yards, Sategna 8 for 164, Blaylock 71 rushing yards.
  8. 247Sports: Oklahoma stands by Tate SandellSandell 10-of-16 on the season after going 3-of-6 at Mississippi State.
  9. 247Sports: Sellers and Orsan beat TennesseeOrsan 10-of-12 on the season, two makes from 50+, both kicks against Tennessee.
  10. A to Z Sports: Oklahoma injury updateBowen expected to be fine per Venables; Maikkula and Powers also injured at Mississippi State.
  11. USA Today: Stewart's strip-sack sets up the winStewart's forced fumble with 33 seconds left; back-to-back ranked wins for South Carolina.
  12. Sooners Wire: ESPN FPI matchup predictorFPI gives Oklahoma a 70.7% win probability against South Carolina.
  13. The Sports Wire: Oklahoma model comparisonSP+ Oklahoma by 2.3, Sagarin by 6.0, FPI by 4.2, Elo by 3.2, SRS by 0.4, Sonny Moore South Carolina by 0.9.
  14. SEC Scouts: South Carolina at Oklahoma previewPrediction: Oklahoma 27, South Carolina 20.
  15. Greenville News: South Carolina season predictionsPrediction: Oklahoma 28, South Carolina 17; Mateer at home and Oklahoma's defense cited.
  16. The Oklahoman: Oklahoma season predictionsPrediction: Oklahoma 30, South Carolina 21.
  17. Sports Illustrated: Week 9 AP poll previewWeek 8 AP Top 25 and projected Week 9 poll — neither South Carolina nor Oklahoma ranked in either.
  18. On3 / GamecockCentral: postgame reactionConfirms the Oct. 31 kickoff at Oklahoma, 4:15 PM ET on SEC Network.
  19. Open-Meteo forecast for Norman, OKKickoff hour (3 PM CT, Oct. 31): light drizzle (code 51), 62°F, wind 6 mph, 32% precipitation probability.