Two losing teams, one working ground game. Auburn can run the ball and Arkansas cannot stop the run; Arkansas can barely run it at all, may be missing its best receiver, and keeps fumbling it away. Confidence: medium.
Arkansas 20, Auburn 31. The Tigers' rushing trio and Elijah Melendez's front seven control a noon kickoff at Jordan-Hare, while a banged-up Razorbacks offense (19.6 points per game, seven fumbles lost) cannot keep pace — even against an Auburn line that leaks sacks.
Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight. Statistics are through Week 9 (Oct. 31 games), compiled Nov. 1, 2026.
Read: Auburn's secondary is leaky — 252.4 passing yards allowed per game — but it takes the ball away, and Jackson (1,673 yards, five picks, 15 sacks taken) has to throw into it without certainty his No. 1 receiver plays. Volume favors Jackson; the takeaway risk favors Auburn.
Read: Arkansas's pass defense is its best unit — only eight passing touchdowns allowed — but Brown is a dual threat (484 rushing yards, seven rushing TDs) attacking a defense that has produced just five interceptions. His seven interceptions thrown keep this from being a bigger Auburn edge.
Read: No Arkansas back averages 4.0 per carry — Sutton Smith 3.4, Cam Settles 3.9, Braylen Russell 3.5 — and Russell was limited to one carry against Missouri. Elijah Melendez (57 tackles, 9.0 TFL, four sacks through seven games) leads a front that should live in this backfield. Auburn has, however, lost All-SEC linebacker Xavier Atkins (37 tackles, 7.5 TFL in five games), dismissed from the program Oct. 20 — a permanent absence that thins the second level.
Read: The game's clearest mismatch. Arkansas has allowed 20 rushing touchdowns in eight games and a league-worst red-zone touchdown rate (opponents score TDs on 81% of red-zone trips). Jeremiah Cobb, Omar Mabson II and Brown's legs give Auburn three ways to exploit it.
Read: This card flips on one name. Chris Marshall — 90.4 receiving yards per game — hurt his leg at Vanderbilt on Oct. 17, sat out the Missouri game as a game-time decision, and is day-to-day per head coach Ryan Silverfield. Antonio Jordan stepped up (seven catches, 106 yards vs. Missouri, plus a late fumble), but without Marshall, a leaky Auburn secondary has far less to fear.
Read: Auburn spreads it around — Keshaun Singleton and Chas Nimrod are steady, Jeremiah Koger is the deep threat at 16.4 per catch — but Arkansas allows the fewest passing scores in this game. Caveat: DB Braydon Lee was out on the final Missouri-week report, thinning the Hogs' rotation. Koger himself was questionable on Auburn's last report.
Read: Arkansas has allowed 17 sacks and 42 tackles for loss, and center Caden Kitler was listed out on its final Missouri-week report — a direct hit to the interior Auburn attacks best. *TFL pace is an early-season rate from Auburn game notes coverage, not a confirmed eight-game total.
Read: Arkansas's one real trench hope. Auburn's line is among the nation's most beaten — Brown has been sacked 32 times (Football Database splits), including seven against LSU and four at Ole Miss — and tackle Tai Buster remains out with no firm return timetable. Even a 10-sack defense gets home against this group; Quincy Rhodes Jr. is the name to watch.
Arkansas's −2 margin is confirmed from its official statistics. Auburn's figures are compiled from Sports-Reference per-game rates and postgame reporting (margin +1 after Week 9) because no official cumulative Auburn PDF was published in the sources reviewed — treat the Tigers' exact totals as estimates.
10 takeaways · 12 giveaways
Plus 5 INT thrown
*Compiled estimate
Scored vs. allowed
Auburn has the steadier kicker and the game's signature kick — a walk-off winner at Georgia — but Arkansas's Max Gilbert owns the longer leg (55) and the shakier card (66.7%, 1-for-5 from 50+). Auburn's Alex McPherson line is compiled game-by-game from reports (5-for-7 through Georgia, then 1-for-1 against both LSU and Ole Miss); no official cumulative Auburn kicking split was published in the sources reviewed.
Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.
The best available proxy for Auburn's offensive dysfunction — and Arkansas's best path to an upset. Brown's completion rate (64.4%) is fine; his protection is not. (Football Database splits.)
Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 9, compiled Nov. 1, 2026. Both teams are unranked in the AP Top 25 released Nov. 1, 2026 (verified against the full poll and its receiving-votes list; neither team appears). The Week 10 SEC availability reports are not published until Wednesday, Nov. 4 — injury status here reflects each team's final Week 9 report plus postgame coach updates, and can change. Betting lines were opening/early lines as of Nov. 1 and will move.