Georgia owns the nation's cleaner profile — 41.0 points scored and 14.9 allowed per game, 7.3 yards per play against 4.3 allowed. Ole Miss owns the SEC's passing leader, a 16-game home win streak and a +13 net-punting edge working the other way.
Georgia's ground game (200.1 yards a game at 5.9 per carry) meets a defense allowing 148.9 rushing yards, while its run defense (86.0 allowed at 2.7 per carry) meets an Ole Miss backfield likely missing its star. Confidence: medium. Hangover read: Georgia's 27–8 win over No. 17 Florida was a win over a ranked opponent with another ranked opponent next — the 3-point tier — so 3 points are shaded against Georgia in this projection; Ole Miss beat unranked Auburn, so no shade applies there. The shade narrows the margin and holds confidence at medium; it does not flip the winner.
Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight. Statistics are through Week 9 (Oct. 31 games) from the schools' official cumulative stats.
Read: Stockton is the most efficient passer in this game by a wide margin, but Ole Miss has allowed only seven passing touchdowns in eight games — it bends between the 20s and stiffens late. Cornerback Jalyn Crawford (2 INT) left the Auburn game early; Pete Golding said he is hopeful for this week, and his status matters here.
Read: Chambliss leads the SEC at 273.6 passing yards per game and has thrown a touchdown in 21 straight games — but Georgia allows 47 fewer passing yards a game than he averages, at just 5.9 per attempt. The swing variable: top corner Ellis Robinson IV (2 INT) left the Florida game with a knee that "tightened up"; Kirby Smart said there was no structural damage, but his availability is unconfirmed.
Read: Dwight Phillips Jr. averages 7.5 yards a carry and Nate Frazier 6.3 — Georgia's rotation is the deepest unit in the game. Ole Miss just held Auburn to 63 rushing yards, but Texas ran for 207 on the Rebels the week before. Georgia's own rotation is thinner if Chauncey Bowens (foot; missed three straight, ruled out vs. Florida) sits again.
Read: The game's clearest mismatch, widened by injury. Georgia held Florida to 48 rushing yards; Ole Miss's lead back, Kewan Lacy (388 yards, 5.0 per carry, 5 TD), dislocated his left shoulder at Texas on Oct. 24, was ruled out against Auburn, and has no return timeline — his Georgia status was still uncertain at build time. Makhi Frazier (357 yards, 5.3 per carry) and Shekai Mills-Knight (career-high 71 yards vs. Auburn) carried the load last week, against a much lighter test.
Read: No Georgia receiver has 350 yards — the Bulldogs spread 19 passing touchdowns across the roster — but Craig Dandridge Jr.'s 17.5 yards per catch is a real vertical stress on a secondary that may be without Crawford (see QB card) and gave up yards in chunks in the Florida and Texas losses.
Read: Deuce Alexander (83.6 yards a game) is the best receiver in this game, and Ole Miss's top three all average 12.8+ per catch. Georgia's raw yardage allowed is elite, but if Robinson IV is limited, Demello Jones and Braylon Conley draw the Alexander assignment — the Rebels' best path to explosives.
Read: Georgia has allowed just nine sacks in eight games — Stockton's quick release and legs help — but Ole Miss is heating up: season highs of four sacks and 10 tackles for loss against Auburn, with Blake Purchase and Suntarine Perkins both disruptive. Linebacker Luke Ferrelli (46 tackles) also left the Auburn game early; Golding is hopeful he plays.
Read: Strength on strength. Five sacks allowed all season is the best protection mark either team owns, and Chambliss's mobility is part of it — but Georgia just hung 11 tackles for loss and four sacks on Florida, and Chris Cole (team-high nine tackles, a sack and a 66-yard fumble-return touchdown in that game) is the form player of either front.
Georgia's +6 margin is confirmed from official stats, built on 15 takeaways and a 72–30 edge in points off turnovers. Ole Miss is exactly even — 12 takeaways, 12 giveaways — but protects its own mistakes (only 14 points allowed off turnovers) better than anyone.
15 takeaways · 9 giveaways
12 takeaways · 12 giveaways
30 allowed
3 in the Texas loss alone
Ole Miss owns the kicking edges that matter late: Lucas Carneiro has the longer leg (57 vs. 49) and the Rebels' net punting (43.9) beats Georgia's (38.7) by more than five yards a punt. Both kickers are perfect on PATs.
Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.
130-of-181 with 16 touchdowns, four interceptions and 9.2 yards per attempt. No public adjusted-completion or on-target rate was found for either quarterback, so completion rate plus yards per attempt is the labeled proxy.
Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 9, compiled November 1, 2026. Ranks are the AP Top 25 released November 1, 2026 (Georgia No. 2, Ole Miss No. 12), verified against multiple reports of that poll. The first SEC availability report for this game week had not been published at build time (initial reports post Wednesday), so injury statuses reflect the most recent official reports and coach comments; lines and statuses can move before kickoff.