Missouri owns the more productive offense and the SEC’s leading rusher. Texas owns the stingier defense — 4.0 yards per play allowed — and every major model. The defense travels.
Texas allows 17.1 points per game and 2.8 yards per carry. Missouri counters with 429.6 yards per game and Jamal Roberts, but Arch Manning’s seven interceptions against Austin Simmons’ two keep this from running away in either direction. Confidence: medium.
Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Season figures run through Week 9 (Oct. 31 games); where a source published through seven games, the Week 9 line is noted. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.
Read: Manning is coming off his cleanest game (80%, 3 TD, 0 INT vs. Mississippi State), but his 3.2% interception rate meets a secondary that just turned Arkansas over repeatedly. Missouri allows yards, not efficiency.
Read: Simmons is the safer thrower — two interceptions all season, an 11.5-yard average depth of target and 46 explosive passes through seven games — but Texas allows the fewest passing yards per game in this matchup by a wide margin. Something bends; the pick says Texas’ secondary bends less.
Read: Texas’ team rushing average is dragged down by sacks and QB runs; Brown himself is a 5-yards-per-carry back. Missouri’s front held Arkansas to 59 rushing yards, so Brown’s efficiency — not volume — is the Texas path. *Through seven games.
Read: The game’s best individual matchup. Roberts ran 23 times for 138 yards and two total TDs at Arkansas and crossed 1,000 for the season. Ahmad Hardy — the 2025 SEC rushing champion, back from a May gunshot wound — added his first carries (2 for 5 yards) and is expected available again, giving Missouri a second hammer if his ramp-up continues. Texas’ 2.8 yards per carry allowed is the counterweight.
Read: Texas spreads it — three different receivers scored or starred across the last two games — against a Missouri secondary allowing the most passing yards in this game. *Through six games.
Read: Simmons attacks downfield (11.5-yard average target depth) and Olugbode is a finisher. Texas defends the pass by yardage better than anyone Missouri has faced lately, but the Longhorns have struggled to finish plays with takeaways — tied for 97th nationally through five games.
Read: Missouri’s front is disruptive — 18 sacks and a top-20 success rate allowed through seven games — and Manning lost a fumble on a sack last week. *Through seven games. Injuries: Missouri RT Josh Atkins was ruled out on the last published SEC availability report (Arkansas week); the Week 10 report had not been published at build time.
Read: Missouri protects Simmons better than any stat in this game suggests — eight sacks allowed through seven games and a clean sheet at Arkansas — against a Texas front led by the nation’s sack leader through five games. *Through seven games. †Through five games.
Missouri protects the ball better; Texas defends better. The swing stat is whether Missouri’s Arkansas takeaway burst (24 points off turnovers) was opponent error or a trend.
6 takeaways · 4 giveaways
in 240 attempts (0.8%)
in 216 attempts (3.2%)
incl. Darris Smith fumble-return TD
Missouri has the verified long leg: Blake Craig hit from 53 at Arkansas. Full-season kicking lines for either kicker were not published in the sources reviewed, so only verified game lines are shown — no season totals are invented here.
Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.
Second in the SEC (min. 200 attempts) through seven games, with a 154.6 efficiency rating, 11.5-yard average depth of target and just two interceptions — the best available public proxy for placement and decision quality in this game.
Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 9 (Oct. 31 games), compiled Nov. 1, 2026. AP ranks are the Nov. 1, 2026 poll release, verified against multiple outlets. The Week 10 SEC availability report had not been published at build time; the latest published report (Arkansas week) listed Missouri RB Malae Fonoti, RT Josh Atkins and TE Gavin Hoffman as out, with Ahmad Hardy unlisted and returning. Texas had no major starter reported out in the sources reviewed — that absence is unverified, not confirmed. Weather is the Open-Meteo forecast read at the 11 a.m. CT kickoff hour for Faurot Field (62°F, overcast, wind 6 mph), corroborated by Weather.com’s Columbia forecast for Nov. 7 (mostly cloudy, high 59, south wind 6 mph). Full-season field-goal lines for both kickers and Texas’s exact turnover margin were not published in the sources reviewed and are flagged where they appear.