Tennessee's Playoff Path Narrows After South Carolina Loss, but a Path Remains
Tennessee's margin for error in the College Football Playoff race shrank considerably with Saturday's 27-24 loss at South Carolina. The Volunteers, ranked No. 16 and now 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, joined a crowded group in the league, where 14 of 16 teams have already lost at least twice and only Kentucky and Georgia have a single loss. According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, the clearest route forward is a flawless finish over the final four games of the regular season, though the model does leave open a narrower possibility even if Tennessee loses once more.
The closing stretch begins after the open date, when the Vols host No. 9 Kentucky at Neyland Stadium next Saturday at 6:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. They then travel to Texas A&M on Nov. 14, host No. 15 LSU on Nov. 21, and finish at Vanderbilt on Nov. 28. ESPN Analytics currently favors Tennessee in three of those four matchups, giving the Vols a 66.9 percent chance against Kentucky, a 52.3 percent chance at Texas A&M, and an 85.9 percent chance at Vanderbilt, while putting their chance of beating LSU at just 35.5 percent.
The scenarios illustrate how much each result matters. Winning five straight, including the SEC Championship Game, would lock Tennessee in as the conference champion, with a strong chance of a first-round bye. Winning the next three key games without reaching the conference title game would still leave the Vols with a 99 percent chance of making the field, and losing the SEC championship after such a run would keep that chance at 93 percent. A 2-1 mark over the next three, however, would drop a three-loss Tennessee team to a 32 percent chance, with seeding possibilities in the model ranging as high as No. 3 with a conference title and as low as No. 10 with three regular-season losses.
Other ESPN measures were mixed this week. The Vols actually climbed two spots to No. 11 in the SP+ rankings, with the offense at No. 17, the defense at No. 18, and special teams at No. 9, and they held at No. 12 in the Football Power Index. The FPI, though, cut Tennessee's playoff probability to 23.4 percent, down from 45.4 percent after the win over Alabama, leaving the Vols with the 17th-best chance nationally heading into the decisive final month.