ESPN Analysts See Tennessee Playing Its Way Toward Atlanta and the SEC Title Game

Tennessee's 26-10 win over Alabama at Neyland Stadium did more than keep the Volunteers in the playoff race — it put them squarely in the SEC Championship Game picture. Breaking down the weekend, ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote that Tennessee could easily play its way to Atlanta if the defense keeps performing at its current level.

The case starts with Jim Knowles' unit. Since allowing 24 points to Georgia Tech in Week 2, the defense has been outstanding, and over the past five weeks it ranks first nationally in three-and-out rate at 48.4 percent, fourth in turnover rate, fifth in sack rate, ninth in points allowed per drive and 15th in yards allowed per play. Alabama felt all of it on Saturday: 201 total yards, a 2-for-13 showing on third down, five sacks taken, 10 tackles for loss and four turnovers, with the Crimson Tide held scoreless for three quarters.

Connelly's point is that the formula is sustainable. A great defense paired with a strong running game has always been a way to overcome ordinary quarterback play, and George MacIntyre's steady performance against Alabama — 6.1 yards per dropback with one interception — was more than enough in that structure.

The projections back it up. Connelly's SP+ gives Tennessee a 12.4 percent chance to win the SEC Championship Game, second only to Georgia. ESPN's Heather Dinich slotted the Vols as the No. 10 seed in her latest College Football Playoff bracket, which would send them to No. 7 Ole Miss in the first round, and the Football Power Index puts Tennessee's playoff chances at 45.4 percent.

The road there is manageable but tight. FPI favors Tennessee at South Carolina, against Kentucky on Nov. 7, at Texas A&M on Nov. 14 and at Vanderbilt on Nov. 28, but gives the Vols only a 42.3 percent chance at home against LSU on Nov. 21. As Dinich noted, any stumble before that LSU game leaves Tennessee with no margin for error.