Tennessee sits just outside playoff field after South Carolina loss, with projections split

Tennessee's 27-24 loss at South Carolina on Saturday has left the Volunteers on the wrong side of most College Football Playoff projections, though they remain firmly in the conversation. At No. 16 with a 6-2 record overall and 3-2 in the SEC, Tennessee is listed just outside the 12-team field by On3, ESPN and CBS Sports, while College Football News still projects the Vols in as the No. 11 seed.

The differences among the outlets show how close the margin is. On3's Andy Staples places Tennessee among his first four teams out, alongside Notre Dame, LSU and Alabama, while Brett McMurphy projects the Vols to the Gator Bowl against Virginia Tech on Dec. 30. ESPN's Heather Dinich also has Tennessee on the wrong side of the bubble, with Georgia, Kentucky, Texas and Ole Miss in her field, and CBS Sports has the Vols just out as well, with a Las Vegas Bowl projection against Arizona on Dec. 31. College Football News, by contrast, sends Tennessee to No. 6 BYU in the first round and then on to face No. 3 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

That is a sharp change from a week earlier, when Tennessee moved into the projections after its 26-10 win over Alabama at Neyland Stadium on Oct. 17. At that point On3 had the Vols as a No. 7 seed, ESPN had them as a No. 10 seed, and CBS Sports had them as a No. 6 seed.

Head coach Josh Heupel, speaking Wednesday during the bye week, framed the rest of the season around finishing. He said Tennessee did not finish the game at South Carolina the way it needed to, and that the team now has to finish the season the same way. The next test comes next Saturday, when No. 9 Kentucky, 7-1 overall and 5-1 in the SEC, visits for a 6:15 p.m. Eastern kickoff on ESPN, a game that will shape whether the Vols climb back into the field or settle for a bowl outside the playoff.